Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...578H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH COLORADO INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THIS RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC UPPER
LEVEL LOW THE GEOSTROPHIC DYNAMIC TO TRIGGER STRONG STORMS THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A FOCUS ON NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AN ENHANCED
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
LIKELY GENERATE GRAVITY WAVES ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES AND NEARBY
EASTERN PLAINS...FURTHER ENHANCING INSTABILITY AND PROVIDING ANOTHER
MODE FOR INITIATING STRONG CONVECTION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...EXCEEDING 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
...FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.  ABQ 12Z MEX POP GUIDANCE INDICATES 70 POP SAT 61 POP SUN AND
30 POP MON...PLUS SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK GUIDANCE INDICATED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...A REGION FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TO TEXAS.  EXPECT ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
WEST.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.  AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT STRONG EASTERLY
GAPS WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE AREAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM.

IN THE LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...THE 500 MB CUTOFF UPPER LOW
WILL STALL OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON GENERALLY EASTERLY
FLOW...TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND GENERATE DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY TO A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN AS THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH
PUSHES DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.  BENNETT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE.
THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT EXPECT A VERY QUICK RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND E
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
STRONG E/SE CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SAT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE LIKELY.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS EARLY SAT MORNING...
WHERE VIS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...CREATING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. E/SE CANYON WINDS
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE GUSTY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
WHEN THE UPR LOW WILL DEPART THE STATE. IT APPEARS PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NONE THE LESS...DRIER AIR WILL MIGRATE INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  87  58  86 /  10  30  30   5
GALLUP..........................  56  84  53  82 /  10  30  40   5
GRANTS..........................  57  83  52  82 /  20  40  40   5
GLENWOOD........................  61  88  60  86 /  20  40  50  20
CHAMA...........................  43  73  41  71 /  40  60  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  74  47  74 /  40  60  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  40  64  39  61 /  50  80  60  30
TAOS............................  50  74  46  73 /  50  60  50  30
SANTA FE........................  53  77  51  74 /  50  70  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  79  54  77 /  40  50  50  30
ESPANOLA........................  55  82  52  81 /  30  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  63  83 /  30  40  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  85  61  85 /  30  40  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  82  62  83 /  30  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  86  62  84 /  30  50  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  62  87  60  87 /  30  40  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  75  49  77 /  30  60  60  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  78  54  78 /  40  60  50  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  84  56  82 /  30  50  40  30
RUIDOSO.........................  53  72  51  71 /  40  50  50  40
RATON...........................  51  70  51  71 /  70  70  60  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  70  48  71 /  60  70  60  50
ROY.............................  54  72  54  70 /  70  70  60  50
CLAYTON.........................  54  69  55  71 /  80  70  60  50
SANTA ROSA......................  59  79  56  79 /  60  60  60  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  78  57  78 /  70  60  60  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  79  58  81 /  60  60  60  40
CLOVIS..........................  61  76  59  78 /  60  60  60  50
PORTALES........................  61  77  58  78 /  60  60  60  50
ROSWELL.........................  67  83  64  83 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ003-009-015.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>007-010>013-016>021-026.

&&

01/46

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008

NMZ002>004-011-160045-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
JEMEZ-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
547 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NEAR LOS ALAMOS AND NORTHERN SANTA FE
COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR WHITE ROCK. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 16 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AGUA FRIA...CHUPADERO...
GLORIETA AND TESUQUE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             7 SW RATON              36.81N 104.53W
08/15/2008  E1.25 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSUK

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