Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...500 MB CHARTS SHOWING VIRTUALLY FLAT FIELD AT 591 DAM
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK 590 DAM FEATURE CREEPING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE WITH MATCHED PAIR FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA
TO NORTHERN END OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LEAVES MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SITTING ON INTERVENING RIDGE. CLOUD COVER
STARTING TO BREAK UP A LITTLE FOR NOW...BUT NEXT WADS OF MOISTURE
AND CLOUD IN IR IMAGERY SETTING UP IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CIRCULATE NORTH THEN EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. 00Z ABQ RAOB LOGGING PWAT OF 1.42 IN WITH
MOISTURE WIDELY DISSEMINATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LAPSE RATES
LOOKING PRETTY MOIST ADIABATIC ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING
UP AROUND 12 THOUSAND FEET MSL...PROVIDING A KEY INGREDIENT TO
ANOTHER WET DAY TODAY.

MODELS...REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN LACK OF STRONG
FEATURES...MAINTAINING RIDGE BROADLY FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH VERY SUBTLE 500 MB ABSOLUTE VORTICITY
BUBBLES WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THESE WILL PROVIDE GENTLE DYNAMICS TO INTENSIFY AND
STEER BROADER RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION. BOTH DOMESTIC MODELS
SPREADING RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY AS BOOKEND SAGS
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MODEL PHYSICS CLEARLY USING THIS MECHANISM TO SQUASH CONVECTION
AND RATCHET DOWN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS UPCOMING
WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY. SHORTWAVE REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY WILL ADVANCE TO FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY AND DIVE TO
SOUTHEAST END OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY FOR SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO START...SETTING UP MIDWEEK RESPITE...AND THEN
RETURNING TO RIDGE PATTERN WITH WEAK VORTICITY BLIPS AS WORK WEEK
WINDS UP FOR UPWARD TWEAK ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH PENETRATION OF BROADER COVERAGE WELL
NORTH OF SANTA FE UNDER WEAK NORTHEAST BOUND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER BLIP CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO FROM
ARIZONA. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXPECT ANOTHER EXTENSION IN TIME AS BASIC PATTERN OF SHOWER
COVERAGE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE CLOUDS...WITH NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR AREAS
RECEIVING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT...SOME
DRYER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL HELP ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT THE NORTHEASTERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALMOST FLAT HEIGHT FIELD
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH HINT OF LEFTOVER VORTICITY BUBBLE AT 500 MB
OVER NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HEAVIEST SHOWER COVERAGE
SUNDAY REMAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY DURING THE
DAY. PATTERN MAY SET UP NEED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD
PAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR SUNNY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
WORKING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN PRETTY ISOLATED GIVEN LACK OF ANY DYNAMICAL HELP. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED FLAT PATTERN ALOFT...ELONGATED WEAK 500
MB VORTICITY SAUSAGE SETTING UP FROM FOUR CORNERS TO HOBBS AND
WILL CALL THIS AS THE MAJOR AXIS FOR RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH
ENHANCEMENT OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WOULD EXPECT
CONTINUED HYDRO HEADACHES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM FOUR CORNERS TO NEAR TUCUMCARI BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
ACTION WILL HELP DEFINE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN END OF THE
STATE...SHIFT WIND FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW RIDGE TO START
BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY.

INTO TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST INTO NEW MEXICO FROM
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA STATE WITH PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY WEAK 500
MB VORTICITY BUBBLE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND THIS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MONDAY...STILL REMAINING
NORMAL OR BELOW FOR THE SEASON.

INTO WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT MORE SOLIDLY PLACED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY BUBBLE AGAIN OVER WESTERN END
OF THE STATE. WOULD EXPECT TEMPORARY DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS RIDGE MAY HELP STRENGTHEN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND GUIDANCE MAKING VALIANT ATTEMPT AT RETURNING
TEMPERATURES BROADLY TO SEASONAL NORMS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER MANY CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER MANY
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PEAKS. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE
THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STEADY TO HEAVY RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

52

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE
TODAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
WITH ANY ACTIVITY TODAY DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY IN THE EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES REMAIN
MODERATE...KEEPING HAINES INDICES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. WINDS WILL
PICK UP THROUGH CENTRAL VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF GAPS AND CANYONS THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  62  89  62 /  20  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  82  56  83  56 /  30  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  81  56  80  54 /  50  30  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  85  62  87  63 /  40  30  60  70
CHAMA...........................  76  44  77  44 /  40  20  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  53  77  52 /  50  40  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  67  44  69  46 /  30  20  20  20
TAOS............................  76  50  80  51 /  40  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  76  52  77  52 /  50  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  56  80  56 /  50  40  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  82  55  87  58 /  40  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  82  64  82  65 /  50  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  83  64  85  66 /  50  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  59  80  60 /  60  60  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  82  63  84  66 /  50  50  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  84  63  86  63 /  50  40  60  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  73  52  77  52 /  60  60  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  78  55  81  55 /  60  50  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  82  59  81  60 /  40  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  73  54  74  54 /  60  40  60  50
RATON...........................  75  50  80  53 /   5   5   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  50  78  52 /  20  10  20  10
ROY.............................  78  57  78  60 /   5   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  77  56  80  60 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  82  58  84  60 /  20  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  60  84  63 /  20  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  60  85  63 /  30  10  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  84  61  81  62 /  40  20  30  20
PORTALES........................  86  61  83  64 /  40  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  89  68  85  67 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ008>011-014>017-026.

&&

SHY/52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008

NMZ001>021-026-131200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
509 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDEVELOP TODAY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN EXTENSION OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...AS SHOWERS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT SHOWERS REDUCED IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
137 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008

NMZ019-122000-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
137 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 136 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MESA. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING EAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTH CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

34

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