Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS OUT TO THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE AN EAST WIND INTO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING.  NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR MUCH WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH WHAT THIS WIND MIGHT KICK OFF.
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRY T IN THE WEST THIS EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BULGE WESTWARD LATE
TUESDAY INTO EASTERN ROOSEVELT...CURRY AND POSSIBLY CHAVES
COUNTY...AND MAY NOT BE AS QUICK TO CLEAR OUT ELSEWHERE ON TUESDAY
AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. STILL...GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST...AND WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
INTACT FOR NOW.

H7 TEMPS DON/T FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
PASSES BUT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AS
THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER EVEN FARTHER SOUTH NOW THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AT BEST THEY WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING
SO WILL NOT BE CONCERNED WITH SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN TOPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHEAST AREAS STILL FAVORED FOR PCPN WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT
AND EXITING LOW BUT WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG. THURSDAY
WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH A WEAK FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THE
NORTHEAST.  A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH 06Z.
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THESE STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  77  43  76 /   5  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  36  71  36  71 /   5  10  10   5
GRANTS..........................  36  72  37  71 /   5  10  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  38  79  40  78 /   5  10  10   5
CHAMA...........................  31  63  31  64 /  20  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  76  41  70 /  20  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  29  60  31  60 /  20  10  20  20
TAOS............................  37  70  37  69 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  42  71  40  71 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  74  42  74 /  20  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  39  75  41  76 /  20  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  77  49  78 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  78  45  80 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  75  46  76 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  78  44  79 /  10  10  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  49  80  47  80 /  10  10  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  73  41  67 /  10  10  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  75  43  74 /  10   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  76  45  78 /  20   5  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  46  71  42  70 /  20   5  10   5
RATON...........................  43  75  40  67 /  20  10  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  71  41  69 /  30   5  10  10
ROY.............................  47  78  45  70 /  40  10  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  53  81  50  70 /  40  20  20  40
SANTA ROSA......................  52  83  49  80 /  30  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  85  53  80 /  40  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  55  85  52  83 /  30  10  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  58  85  53  81 /  40  10  30  20
PORTALES........................  58  85  53  82 /  40  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  58  87  54  89 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ107-108.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
400 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

NMZ001>021-026-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
400 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE OR THROUGH THEIR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
739 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

NMZ006-007-013-060215-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-HARDING COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
739 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2008

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO....STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER
NORTHERN QUAY...SOUTHERN UNION...AND SOUTHEAST HARDING COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF LOGAN TO 5 MILES WEST OF ROMERO. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTH AT 17 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROSEBUD.

GUYER

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