Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS DAYS... MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING AND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. OCCASIONAL BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED
TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...LEAVING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED QUICKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

WEST OF A LINE FROM CHAMA...TO CUBA...TO GLENWOOD...TSTMS HAVE BEEN
MORE ON THE DRY SIDE THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE SOUTHEAST OF THAT
LINE...A MIX OF WET AND DRY TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. FREQUENT LIGHTING
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH SUNSET
WITH THESE STORMS.

STORMS ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL
CLUSTERS.  THESE STORMS MAY KICK OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WESTWARD...ONCE AGAIN LEAVING A CHANCE FOR EAST CANYON WINDS ACROSS
THE ABQ AREA.  HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE NEAR ABQ...THE
RESULTING PRESSURE INCREASE MAY LESSEN THE EAST WIND POTENTIAL AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRY TSTMS FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...A MIX OF WET AND DRY CENTRAL...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG OR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF AN
EAST WIND ACROSS THE ABQ AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS
STORMS WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS.

UPPER HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO STARTING
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...WITH ISOLATED DRY TSTMS FAVORED ACROSS THE
WEST. HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS GREAT AS TODAY AND MONDAY. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST NM AND THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU ABOUT 06Z WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED AND GENERALLY MVFR CIG/VSBY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER BASED BUT MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTARD.
EASTERLY GAP WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE CANYONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO TAOS BETWEEN 02Z AND
08Z AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA...MANZANO MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

07

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY THAN
SATURDAY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. BETTER
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS THERE...WHILE A
MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FURTHER WEST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY WEST OF A CHAMA TO
GLENWOOD LINE WOULD BE THE DRY VARIETY...FEATURING LIGHTNING AND
VIRGA WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS...RATHER THAN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

SOME DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. MOST THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WOULD LIKELY BE THE DRY VARIETY.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BECOME FAIR TO
POOR BY TUESDAY IN THE WEST AND STARTING WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  93  57  94 /   5   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  50  90  49  90 /   5   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  51  90  51  91 /  10  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  55  97  56  98 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  40  81  41  82 /  20  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  87  54  86 /  20  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  37  74  39  76 /  30  40  10  30
TAOS............................  46  86  46  87 /  20  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  57  88  56  88 /  30  30  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  90  55  90 /  20  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  52  94  53  93 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  94  66  93 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  95  60  94 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  91  62  91 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  95  64  94 /  10  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  60  95  61  95 /  20  10  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  84  48  87 /  20  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  89  52  89 /  20  30  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  92  58  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  51  83  52  83 /  40  30  30  20
RATON...........................  49  86  50  86 /  30  30  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  86  49  85 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  57  85  58  85 /  40  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  61  91  60  90 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  58  94  60  93 /  40  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  97  64  95 /  50  20  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  93 /  40  20  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  94  64  92 /  40  20  30  20
PORTALES........................  64  95  64  92 /  30  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  66  99  67  95 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

NMZ001>021-026-231645-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1035 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM RATON...TO VAUGHN...TO CLOVIS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO.

34

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