Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WWUS85 KABQ 140006
RFWABQ

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
506 PM MST WED FEB 13 2008

NMZ104-108-140115-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080214T0000Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
506 PM MST WED FEB 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
700 PM. 20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

$$

GUYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
700MB FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT REALLY
CRANK UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT...THUS
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

MOST OF THE ATTENTION THIS MORNING WAS SPENT ON UPCOMING WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS/CANADIAN ALL KEEP CENTER OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER WEST INTO ARIZONA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
THOUGH...WHILE NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST...THE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING THAT
WAY AS WELL. NAM IS STILL THE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER...THOUGH LATEST
RUN IS TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER SYSTEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
THEN TAKE THE LOW CENTER FROM ARIZONA SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO.  THE
GFS ALSO TAKES THE LOW CENTER INTO OLD MEXICO...BUT FIRST TAKES AN
INTERESTING JOG INTO SOUTHERN NM BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH. NOT BITING
ON THAT SOLUTION YET. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...SOUTHEASTERN NM AND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS WOULD CERTAINLY SEE SNOW EARLIER...AND LIKELY
MORE OF IT.  LARGELY FAVORED THE ECMWF WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED FROM YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT SNOWS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ALL THIS SAID...WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING...AND
WILL ADD ZONES 5 AND 8 TO THE WATCH AND POSTPONE THE START OF THE
WATCH UNTIL 13Z THU DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. HAVE
ADDED ZONE 8 DUE TO FAVORED WESTWARD TRACKING OF THE UPPER LOW
CENTER. CHUSKAS MAY SEE HEAVY SNOWS INITIALLY...WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS LOW DIVES SOUTH.

HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST...SOUTH OF I-40.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...SO WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
INCREASED FURTHER. THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED TIME FRAME FOR ANY SNOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
SINCE THE UPPER SYSTEMS PROGRESSION IS STILL SLOWED...AND WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP LINGERING INTO SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED LOW TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SLOW WARM-UP IS IN STORE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST.

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&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KFMN WHERE IFR VSBY AND CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND AT
KGUP WHERE MVFR VSBY AND CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN ON EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE.
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR MT WAVE ACTIVITY
TO LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  50  29  37  17 /   0  40  50  20
GALLUP..........................  53  28  35  14 /   0  30  60  30
GRANTS..........................  57  30  42  18 /   0   0  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  66  31  59  26 /   0   0  30  50
CHAMA...........................  42  19  32   4 /   0  60  80  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  49  26  39  12 /   0  10  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  41  19  29   4 /   0  20  70  60
TAOS............................  46  23  34   5 /   0  20  60  60
SANTA FE........................  52  28  40  14 /   0   5  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  30  43  17 /   0   5  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  54  25  46  21 /   0  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  36  51  26 /   0   0  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  33  52  22 /   0   0  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  35  49  22 /   0   0  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  36  50  24 /   0   0  30  60
SOCORRO.........................  66  34  61  26 /   0   0  10  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  29  44  13 /   0   0  40  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  30  49  15 /   0   0  40  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  38  61  26 /   0   0   5  50
RUIDOSO.........................  57  36  54  21 /   0   0   0  50
RATON...........................  59  28  33  10 /   0  10  70  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  61  33  36  11 /   0   0  60  50
ROY.............................  63  32  34  12 /   0   0  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  66  31  33  14 /   0   0  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  67  38  53  17 /   0   0  20  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  39  51  18 /   0   0  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  37  56  20 /   0   0  20  50
CLOVIS..........................  69  36  55  21 /   0   0  10  50
PORTALES........................  70  36  57  20 /   0   0  10  50
ROSWELL.........................  72  39  68  28 /   0   0   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-108.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ004-005-008.

&&

34/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008

NMZ001>021-026-141300-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MST WED FEB 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE
THOSE STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS
THE EVENT NEARS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637.

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