Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST WED JAN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND IN STORE FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY AS VIGOROUS AND FAST PACED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THESE TWO ASPECTS OF THE STORM WILL POSE A FEW
CHALLENGES FOR TODAY.

CERTAINLY MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
ITS ORIGIN. A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED JET IS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE ALLOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS TO SHAPE UP DURING
SYSTEM PASSAGE. GIVEN THIS FORCING...CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU. SNOWFALL WILL COUPLE WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS AND THUS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT
AREAS OF SNOWFALL...AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. FARTHER EAST...WINDS WILL HIT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
IN THE EAST AND CURRENT PLANS ARE FOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO BE
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING LATER THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL IS LOW DUE TO A LACK OF ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS AND UNFAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FRONTOGENESIS.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY ROLLS OUT OF THE AREA WITH THURSDAY BEING
DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER A SUBTLE AND BRIEF LIVED
RIDGE BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING TO ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY. SUBTLE
BATCHES OF ENERGY AND SATURATION ALOFT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE STATE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE AXIS
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER NEXT 24
HOURS. CLOUD COVER MOVING BROADLY FROM FOUR CORNERS TO RIO GRANDE
BY 18Z...TO EASTERN PLAINS BY 21Z...AND TO TEXAS BORDER BY 00Z.
EXPECTING CIGS MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCNL PECKS INTO MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH MT TOPS OBSCURED. DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BOOST AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
KTCC...KROW...KLVS AND BROADLY OVER EASTERN PLAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  32   8  33  16 /  60   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  32  -1  32   8 /  50  20   0   0
GRANTS..........................  36   4  33   8 /  30  20   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  51  15  47  17 /  20  20   0   0
CHAMA...........................  28  -5  31  -2 /  60  30   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  31   5  32   9 /  30  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  26  -5  26  -3 /  60  30   0  10
TAOS............................  32   2  31   2 /  60  40   0   5
SANTA FE........................  34  10  35  13 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35   9  34  14 /  20  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  38   5  41  11 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  16  40  21 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  43  10  43  14 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  10  40  15 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  42  13  48  18 /  20   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  53  16  47  15 /  10   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38   6  36  11 /  10  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41   7  38  14 /  10  10   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  20  42  15 /   5  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  47  18  40  16 /   5  10   0   0
RATON...........................  40   6  33   8 /  30  20   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  38   7  35  16 /  20  20   0   0
ROY.............................  43  13  43  20 /  10  20   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  14  37  19 /   5  50   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  56  17  46  22 /   5  10   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  55  20  44  21 /   5  20   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  17  46  20 /   5   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  56  22  44  22 /   5  10   0   0
PORTALES........................  56  20  45  23 /   5  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  63  27  48  21 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-002-004-008.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005-012-013-016>018-026.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ011.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ108.

&&

52/SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 AM MST WED JAN 30 2008

NMZ001>021-026-311300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMINGTON...CHAMA/LOS ALAMOS...
ESPANOLA...RED RIVER/TAOS/SANTA FE...LAS VEGAS/RATON...ROY...
CLAYTON...GALLUP/GRANTS...ALBUQUERQUE...SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST...
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...SANTA ROSA...TUCUMCARI...GLENWOOD...SOCORRO...
CARRIZOZO...RUIDOSO...FORT SUMNER...ROSWELL...PORTALES...CLOVIS
448 AM MST WED JAN 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...

A WEATHER SYSTEM GATHERING STRENGTH OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...AND DIVE SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY.

WITH COLD ALASKAN AIR PACKED IN BEHIND THE STORM...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...SPREADING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS BY LATE MONDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH A LONG JOURNEY FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO NEW MEXICO...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
AS IT MAKES THE TRIP. HOWEVER...THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH
WITH THEIR PREFERRED WEATHER INFORMATION SOURCE. THOSE OUTDOORS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK SHOULD PREPARE FOR A
WIDE RANGE OF WINTER WEATHER...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL SHOULD
BE FULLY PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TRAVEL
DELAYS AND PLAN ON LEAVING PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

SHY