Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TODAY. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND STRENGTH OF WIND
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED.

TIS THE SEASON FOR PLENTY OF WIND AND TODAY WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.
WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR THE SANGRES...NE HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NM. WILL
ALSO BE UPGRADING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
EASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES. WINDS ARE COMPLIMENTS OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING CO THIS AM. ANOTHER ONE WILL PASS FARTHER TO THE N
LATER TODAY. MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND PRODUCE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON E. OTHERWISE SOME RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY OVER THE FAR N...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FARTHER S. THE
FRONT STALLED OVER THE NE WILL QUICKLY MOVE N THIS MORNING AND BRING
WARMER TEMPS TO THIS AREA TODAY. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY.

DRY AND COOLER AREA WIDE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BUT A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NE...OR MORE LIKELY TUE NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE E. TUE WILL BE
DRY AREA WIDE WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE E AND ABOUT THE SAME IN THE
W. WINDS WILL BE LOWER AS WELL...PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF LATE.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON WED. AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS WILL BRING ABOUT THE RETURN FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE NEAR THE TX BORDER WHERE THE RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LOW
LEVEL AIR COULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...AND COULD EVEN HELP PRODUCE A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR SE ZONES.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN NM LATER
IN THE NEXT...FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS MOSTLY N OF INTERSTATE 40. GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER
THE SW DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT NORTHERN NM. WILL KEEP NEXT WEEKEND
DRY FOR NOW. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD
RETREAT OUT OF NEW MEXICO WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MID MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHEN WEST AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THEN END THIS EVENING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  30  65  35 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  60  24  65  26 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  61  25  67  27 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  71  30  74  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  50  21  54  24 /  30   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  28  59  31 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  49  19  51  23 /  10   5   0   0
TAOS............................  56  24  59  28 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  61  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  63  30  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  67  32  69  33 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  38  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  30  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  39  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  75  40  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  32  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  65  28  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  65  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  65  27  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  27  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  69  31  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  72  31  53  31 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  35  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  80  35  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  79  37  59  38 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  80  36  61  37 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ012-013-018-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ004-005-011.

&&

40/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2008

NMZ001>021-026-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
546 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM FOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS
EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE EAST WITH POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND STRONG ENOUGH WINDS FOR A WIND ADVISORY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD EXIST TO PREVENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CREATE AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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