High Wind Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

.UPDATE...
OUR CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FROM NOON TO 10 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN..CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SHOW INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND A
DEVELOPING MIDDLE LEVEL JET CORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN. IT APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST MODELS
HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND UP SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS AN EXTRA 5 MPH. THAT WILL PUT GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
ACROSS SOME AREAS. THE OTHER ITEM HAS TO DO WITH A DRIER
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK FOR NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A LAL OF 6 FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...BASICALLY 3 FIRE WEATHER ZONES. VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...631 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008...
A LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT 2 TO
PERHAPS 3 DAYS FEATURING WIND AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARGUABLY THE MAIN FEATURES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER LATE IN
THE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEMS ON TRACK...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME PCPN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NEAR TO MID TERM
NUMERICAL MODELS. TREND THOUGH FAVORS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTER SHOWERS AND T STORMS FOR W CENTRAL NW AND N CENTRAL NM
AFTER TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT WILL
PRIMARILY BE A TOP DOWN WETTING WITH THE COOLING TREND ALSO
HELPING TO RAISE RH VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS LATE AM TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH FOR ALL THE FCST
AREA SO WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE ACTUAL
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT BEING UPDATED A LITTLE WAYS BEFORE IT
EXPIRES AT 14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A WESTWARD RETREAT IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE CONCERNED
WITH DRYLINE PENETRATION INTO SOME PART OF E NM THEN.

.AVIATION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR THE WINDY
DAY AHEAD. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE EXPECT TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS COULD BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL IN
TAFS. WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WE GAIN GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THAT  DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM STRATTLES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF
A LOBE OF VORTICITY THAT WILL SWEEP WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT. THUS...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A RED FLAG
WARNING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.  HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
THOSE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENINGS
SHORT WAVE. THIS EVENINGS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THIS EVENING...HUMIDITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO COME UP SOME IN THE WEST AND NORTH...AND THE POLAR
JET WILL TAKE A POSITION THAT FAVORS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST PLAINS...SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE JET ALREADY OVERHEAD
AS THE SUN RISES...THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
EACH DAY. THUS...WE WILL START THURSDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH A COUPLE
HOURS SOONER THAN WHEN ORIGINALLY ISSUED. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY BEING A WINDY AND DRY DAY...WILL
ALSO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH THIS MORNINGS FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

AFTER SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND PERHAPS RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER MOST AREAS ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE BREEZES AND
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES MAY PERSIST.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ001>003-013-018>021.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>012-014>017-026.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

NMZ001>021-026-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT WED MAY 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS REACH
BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH. VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. WIND ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT MUCH OF
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY WILL SEE NEARLY AS STRONG WINDS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH ATTENDANT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH.

FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY THE DRY LINE MAY
EASE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN QUARTER OR THIRD OF THE STATE AND
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT PART OF THE STATE. THAT RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

43