Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...579H5 CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
COLORADO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS...NAM... ECMWF...THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OK-TX PANHANDLES BY MONDAY EVENING. CIRCULATION
AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS ADVECTED DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS DRIER AIR...12Z ABQ PWAT AT 0.97 INCHES WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED AFTERNOON INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AZTEC
PROFILER IS MEASURING 35 KTS WESTERLY WIND AT 500 MB AND THE 12Z
ABQ SOUNDING WIND PROFILE SHOWS WESTERLY WINDS FROM 8500 FT AND
ABOVE...WITH 500 MB WINDS AT 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INDUCE GRAVITY WAVES DOWNSTREAM OF OUR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THESE GRAVITY WAVES WILL AID IN THE
INITIATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THEY
WILL MOVE GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...EXCEPT WHERE
INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.  EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO GET INTO THE ACT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
OR AS NEW STORMS INITIATE IN THE MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE DEWPOINT READINGS ARE IN THE 60S FROM
CARLSBAD TO TUCUMCARI.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.  ACCORDINGLY...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO
CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE OK-TX PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
INITIATING STORMS. ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE DIMINISHES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE 500 MB CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING FROM
CENTRAL ARIZONA TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION...
EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO AROUND CLIMATE NORMALS
AND POPS TO DECREASE TO BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BENNETT

&&

.AVIATION...
RESTRICTING CONDITIONS HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP IN ERN NM LATER
TONIGHT. BUT FIRST...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF NM AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD
REDUCE VIS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS. CONFIDENCE OF
THESE RESTRICTING CONDITIONS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND THEREFORE INCLUDED
IN REGIONAL TAFS. SOME VFR CIGS SHOULD FORM WITHIN THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. CANYON WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN AWW ISSUANCE...THOUGH THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY. WRN SITES WILL REMAIN
VFR IN NATURE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LESS ACTIVE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE STATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW MIGRATES
FROM SOUTHERN CO INTO CENTRAL TX. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM...WHERE WETTING
RAINS WILL BE COMMON. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AS THE MID-WEEK
APPROACHES...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO. IN FACT...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FOR
THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...STORMS WILL BE OF THE
ISOLATED NATURE...FOCUSED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR PCPN MAY COME NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  89  57  93 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  49  85  50  87 /   5   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  49  84  49  86 /   5   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  59  89  58  91 /  30  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  39  76  41  81 /  20  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  76  49  80 /  30  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  37  66  36  75 /  40  30  20  20
TAOS............................  45  77  45  82 /  40  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  51  77  53  81 /  40  30  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  79  53  83 /  30  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  50  82  52  87 /  30  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  83  62  85 /  30  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  85  58  86 /  30  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  82  57  84 /  30  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  84  60  86 /  30  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  57  85  57  87 /  30  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  74  45  80 /  30  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  77  49  81 /  40  30  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  81  55  85 /  40  30  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  50  72  49  75 /  40  40  20  20
RATON...........................  48  73  48  81 /  50  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  47  71  46  79 /  50  40  20  20
ROY.............................  54  72  54  81 /  60  40  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  54  72  57  81 /  70  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  54  79  54  85 /  60  40  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  77  57  84 /  70  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  78  58  84 /  60  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  59  75  59  82 /  70  50  30  20
PORTALES........................  60  76  60  82 /  70  50  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  61  79  64  84 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ004>007-010>013-016>021-026.

&&

01/46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NMZ001>021-026-181200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THEIR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1.888.386.7637.

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
216 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     HAIL             1 SW SAN ILDEFONSO PUEB 35.89N 106.14W
08/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   PUBLIC

            HALF MILE WEST ON HIGHWAY 502 NEAR HWY 30 AND 502
            INTERCHANGE. PHILLIPS 66.

&&

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NMZ008-009-172130-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS-
242 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO WESTERN BERNAILLO COUNTY...

AT 237 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARQUEZ.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL WESTERN BERNALILLO
COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
412 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NMZ008-009-172245-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS-
412 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST VALENCIA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 10 MILES EAST OF MESITA.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTHWESTERN
VALENCIA COUNTY...RURAL SOUTHWESTERN BERNALILLO COUNTY AND RURAL
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER