Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 080232
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
832 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMC045-080330-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080808T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN-
832 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN COUNTY...

AT 827 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE NEW STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
SANOSTEE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF SHEEP SPRINGS...OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHIPROCK TO 32 MILES NORTH OF 
GALLUP...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR...
  SANOSTEE AROUND 845 PM MDT...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG ROUTE 34 
EAST OF SANOSTEE TO HIGHWAY 491...SANOSTEE AND TOCITO WASHES AS WELL 
AS DEAD MANS WASH.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3667 10863 3632 10829 3601 10836 3601 10884
      3628 10887 3651 10905

$$

DPORTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT DRAPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO NEAR BUEYEROS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE FRONT HAS STALLED...RESULTED IN LITTLE
TO NO STORM MOVEMENT.  SOME OF THESE AREAS...NAMELY FROM NEAR
MOSQUERO TO GLADSTONE...HAS HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN RECENT
DAYS...THUS SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THIS SAME
AREA...FLOODING WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN. AS STORMS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...AN MCS SHOULD FORM ALLOWING STORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THOUGH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STORMS THAT
HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH THESE STORMS MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD.  WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST...ALSO
EXPECT AN EAST CANYON WIND INTO ABQ TONIGHT.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AND/OR
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS STORMS. THE FOCUS WILL LARGELY
BE ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ANTICIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS AT OR
BELOW THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE UPPER HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
SEND ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE 12Z GFS OR
NAM...BUT 18Z NAM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE EURO. THUS...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...BUT FRONTAL TIMING MAY STILL BE QUESTIONABLE.  MODELS
ALSO SUGGESTING ONE OR MORE SECONDARY COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS NM
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY NEXT 24 HOURS AS EXPECT MANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDER CELLS. EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING TCC AND LVS
WILL ESPECIALLY GET HIT HARD WITH HEAVY RAIN. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
DUE TO ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE. PERHAPS
EVEN SOME LOCALIZED FOG DVLP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVERHEAD
REMAINING STAGNANT AND NOT ALLOWING DRY AIR PENETRATION FROM THE
WEST. WETTING RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS NEAR OR OVER NEW
MEXICO. SOME DRYING EXPECTED SOMETIME NEXT WEEK BUT UNSURE OF EXACT
TIMING AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
A LOWERING TREND IN HUMIDITY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  62  91 /  30  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  57  85  58  84 /  30  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  56  84  56  85 /  30  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  61  90  62  88 /  30  40  40  30
CHAMA...........................  47  78  47  80 /  50  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  79  55  84 /  40  30  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  45  69  44  75 /  70  60  30  40
TAOS............................  54  80  51  85 /  50  40  20  30
SANTA FE........................  59  81  58  85 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  82  58  86 /  40  30  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  58  84  57  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  86  67  88 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  87  66  90 /  30  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  89  65  90 /  30  30  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  64  89 /  20  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  78  52  81 /  40  30  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  81  57  85 /  40  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  86  61  86 /  20  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  75  54  80 /  20  40  20  30
RATON...........................  57  80  54  85 /  80  50  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  75  54  83 /  70  50  30  30
ROY.............................  60  79  60  84 /  70  40  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  80  61  86 /  80  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  84  61  89 /  50  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  84  65  94 /  60  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  86  65  93 /  40  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  66  93 /  40  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  66  87  66  93 /  30  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  89  69  94 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMZ001>021-026-081200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
549 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES
AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO REPORT
FLASH FLOODING OR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
437 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMZ005-072300-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
437 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 430 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRUJILLO.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

40