Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 072210
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMC021-059-072315-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-080807T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARDING-UNION-
410 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON STATE ROAD 
402 3 MILES NORTH OF AMISTAD...AND ON COUNTY ROADS 2 MILES EAST OF 
AMISTAD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH 500 PM...
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AMISTAD AND SEDAN...

ARROYOS...STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BECOME RAGING KILLER CURRENTS IN A 
MATTER OF MINUTES. KNOW WHERE HIGHER GROUND IS LOCATED.

LAT...LON 3618 10337 3624 10316 3611 10304 3576 10303
      3576 10340

$$

40

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 072310
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMC021-059-072320-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-080807T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARDING-UNION-
510 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UNION AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL HARDING COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3618 10337 3624 10316 3611 10304 3576 10303
      3576 10340

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT DRAPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO NEAR BUEYEROS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE FRONT HAS STALLED...RESULTED IN LITTLE
TO NO STORM MOVEMENT.  SOME OF THESE AREAS...NAMELY FROM NEAR
MOSQUERO TO GLADSTONE...HAS HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN RECENT
DAYS...THUS SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THIS SAME
AREA...FLOODING WILL BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN. AS STORMS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...AN MCS SHOULD FORM ALLOWING STORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THOUGH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STORMS THAT
HAVE FORMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH THESE STORMS MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD.  WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST...ALSO
EXPECT AN EAST CANYON WIND INTO ABQ TONIGHT.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AND/OR
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS STORMS. THE FOCUS WILL LARGELY
BE ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN
ANTICIPATION OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS AT OR
BELOW THE LOWEST GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE UPPER HIGH ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL
SEND ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH QPF THAN THE 12Z GFS OR
NAM...BUT 18Z NAM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE EURO. THUS...HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...BUT FRONTAL TIMING MAY STILL BE QUESTIONABLE.  MODELS
ALSO SUGGESTING ONE OR MORE SECONDARY COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS NM
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY NEXT 24 HOURS AS EXPECT MANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDER CELLS. EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING TCC AND LVS
WILL ESPECIALLY GET HIT HARD WITH HEAVY RAIN. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
DUE TO ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE. PERHAPS
EVEN SOME LOCALIZED FOG DVLP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVERHEAD
REMAINING STAGNANT AND NOT ALLOWING DRY AIR PENETRATION FROM THE
WEST. WETTING RAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS NEAR OR OVER NEW
MEXICO. SOME DRYING EXPECTED SOMETIME NEXT WEEK BUT UNSURE OF EXACT
TIMING AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
A LOWERING TREND IN HUMIDITY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  62  91 /  30  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  57  85  58  84 /  30  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  56  84  56  85 /  30  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  61  90  62  88 /  30  40  40  30
CHAMA...........................  47  78  47  80 /  50  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  79  55  84 /  40  30  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  45  69  44  75 /  70  60  30  40
TAOS............................  54  80  51  85 /  50  40  20  30
SANTA FE........................  59  81  58  85 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  82  58  86 /  40  30  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  58  84  57  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  86  67  88 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  87  66  90 /  30  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  89  65  90 /  30  30  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  64  89 /  20  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  78  52  81 /  40  30  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  81  57  85 /  40  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  86  61  86 /  20  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  75  54  80 /  20  40  20  30
RATON...........................  57  80  54  85 /  80  50  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  75  54  83 /  70  50  30  30
ROY.............................  60  79  60  84 /  70  40  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  60  80  61  86 /  80  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  84  61  89 /  50  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  84  65  94 /  60  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  86  65  93 /  40  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  66  93 /  40  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  66  87  66  93 /  30  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  89  69  94 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

NMZ001>021-026-081200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
549 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES
AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO REPORT
FLASH FLOODING OR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
925 AM MDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      22 S SHIPROCK           36.47N 108.70W
08/06/2008                   SAN JUAN           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING HALF MILE STRETCH ALONG HWY 491 AT JUNCTION OF
            NAVAJO RT 34 NEAR LITTLE WATER.VEHICLES WERE STOPPED. ONE
            VEHICLE GOT STUCK AND NEEDED TO BE PULLED OUT. FLOODING
            OCCURRED BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

&&

50