Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 232131
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

NMC031-232245-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080723T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKINLEY-
331 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY...

AT 324 PM MDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED HIGH WATER IN THE 
VICINITY OF U.S. HIGHWAY 491 AND NAVAJO ROUTE 9. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE 
VICINITY OF GALLUP NORTHWESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA LINE. THEY WERE 
STILL NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YAH-TA-HEY...
  TOHATCHI...
  GALLUP...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MANY
FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

WATER IN ARROYOS MAY TRAVEL MANY MILES AND TAKE HOURS TO REACH YOUR
LOCATION FROM UPSTREAM RAIN AREAS. REMAIN ALERT TO FLOODED ROAD
CROSSINGS EVEN HOURS LATER.

LAT...LON 3585 10903 3586 10867 3534 10861 3530 10876
      3534 10904

$$

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 232243
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

NMC031-232253-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080723T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKINLEY-
443 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MCKINLEY COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL HAD 
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS 
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR 
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3585 10903 3586 10867 3534 10861 3530 10876
      3534 10904

$$

43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA AND
REPORTS OF HIGH WATER FLOWS CONTINUING IN PATCHY LOCALES...FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. DEFORMATION ZONE STILL
REMAINS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH THETA-E RIDGE AXIS PARKED AT
THIS SAME LOCATION. APPEARS A WEAK MCV IS MIGRATING AROUND SW SAN
JUAN COUNTY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TODAY. FFA AND HWO ALREADY OUT THE DOOR...ZFP WILL FOLLOW
SHORTLY. DPORTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN
THE FEATURED AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IF THE NAM/GFS ARE RIGHT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE
LESS AREAL COVERAGE TODAY.

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD
THURSDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER...AND MORE ACTIVITY ADJACENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADJUSTS FOR DOLLYS TRACK WESTWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COULD SEE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AS SOON AS FRIDAY FROM DOLLY...BUT THIS MAKES A QUICK
PASS OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE MAY BE A DECENT SURGE
OF MOISTURE BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVELS INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...WHICH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS RAPIDLY SHUNTS THIS MOISTURE AWAY
SATURDAY...STILL FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE MOST NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF
GENERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER GILA...MOST OF IT IS
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

ONE LAST WRINKLE IS WITH THE NAM/S SHIFT IN THE H5 HIGH CENTER
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...A SURFACE BOUNDARY/UPPER
DISTURBANCE COULD APPARENTLY IMPACT NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS
MORE SUBTLE BUT HINTS AT LEAST AT AN AREA OF DECENT RAIN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO FOR A SIMILAR TIME FRAME. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO
BE WETTEST OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WOBBLES AROUND EASTERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS.
LOWERED SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...AS WELL AS ADJUSTED SOME POPS UPWARD FROM
THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

.AVIATION...ONGOING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NM THROUGH 12Z.  THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUP AS THEY SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 KT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...GENERALLY FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MINIMUM DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE DOLLY MAY
GET TRANSPORTED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM BY
SATURDAY...AND COULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND.  COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH SETS UP.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ001-008-014.

&&

46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

NMZ001>021-026-241200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING...IS POSSIBLE
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCAL AREAS OF
FLOODING...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER GILA AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO REPORT FLOODING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.