Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...STORMS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER TORRANCE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE APPEARS TO
BE A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN CHAVES COUNTY TO TAIBAN...HOUSE AND QUAY
WHERE CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING AS OF 2 PM.  THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH REACHED THE CONTDVD
AND BLED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS FARMINGTON. SOME OF THE RAWS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD EVEN INDICATED DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 40S.  HOWEVER...AS EXPECTED...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
HAS MIXED OUT TO ALONG/EAST OF THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  THE CONTINUATION OF THIS FLOW
PREDICTED EARLIER BY MODELS TO PERSIST AND EVEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
IN THE WAY OF AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND AT KABQ AND KSAF IS NOW NOT AS
STRONG...ALTHOUGH HOW THIS EVENING/S CONVECTION SHAPES UP WILL BE A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.

MODELS DIFFER IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR EAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE SCOURED OUT ON THURSDAY. CONSIDERING HOW FAR WEST IT REACHED THIS
MORNING...AND WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...DON/T THINK
THURSDAY SHOULD GO POP-LESS.  SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE UNDER THE GENERAL OUTLOOK...AND CONCUR
THAT IT MAY NOT DRY OUT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  FRIDAY DOES
LOOK WARMER AND DRIER AREAWIDE...WITH A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE INTO
THE NORTHEAST CORNER SATURDAY-ISH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
THE DRIER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WHILE WETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. A MIX OF WETTER AND DRIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALTHOUGH WETTER THAN DRIER. A HOUR OR
TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF LOW RH AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE AZ STATE LINE THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS GAPS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW
MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AS THE DRYLINE GETS MIXED BACK TO THE EAST. HAVE HEDGED
TOWARDS A MORE BULLISH SOLUTION BY KEEPING MENTION OF ISOLATED DRIER
STORMS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALTHOUGH
THE WEATHER MODELS ARE A BIT DRIER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
THE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THIS WATCH AREA AND SPREAD
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THINKING 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS THE JEMEZ MTS.

SYSTEM WASHES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AREA ON FRIDAY AND LOOK
FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE BREEZY.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT GUSTINESS BUT STILL EXPECT SOME STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PECOS AND RATON.

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONGER
BREEZINESS WILL BE DUE TO TERRAIN DRIVEN FLOWS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WHICH WOULD MEAN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. TIMING OF THE BREAK DOWN IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT BUT IT MOST LIKELY WILL OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  86  43  85 /   5   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  40  84  36  81 /   0   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  44  82  39  83 /  10   5   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  48  92  43  91 /   0   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  37  75  31  72 /  30   5   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  49  77  47  79 /  30  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  38  69  32  70 /  30  10  10   0
TAOS............................  46  79  38  80 /  20  10  10   0
SANTA FE........................  51  80  45  82 /  30  10  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  83  48  85 /  30  10  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  48  85  44  86 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  86  58  88 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  87  51  89 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  83  53  85 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  88  53  89 /  20  10   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  57  90  53  91 /  20  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  78  47  81 /  30  10  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  82  47  86 /  30  20  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  85  54  90 /  30  20  20   0
RUIDOSO.........................  50  79  49  85 /  30  30  20   0
RATON...........................  47  82  45  84 /  30  20  10   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  81  48  82 /  40  20  10   0
ROY.............................  53  82  53  83 /  40  20  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  58  87  58  89 /  30  20  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  55  87  54  92 /  40  20  10   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  93  61  96 /  40  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  88  60  94 /  40  20  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  61  88  61  96 /  30  30  20   0
PORTALES........................  63  88  61  96 /  30  30  20   0
ROSWELL.........................  63  92  64  99 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-109.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

NMZ001>021-026-291200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
255 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH 9 PM MDT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION
STATEMENT AND ANY WARNING STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

A DRY LIGHTING OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTACT LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE TO
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             10 NE STANLEY           35.25N 105.85W
05/28/2008  E1.00 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   PUBLIC

0340 PM     HAIL             3 NE STANLEY            35.18N 105.94W
05/28/2008  M1.00 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

TSHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             LOS ALAMOS              35.89N 106.28W
05/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       LOS ALAMOS         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0405 PM     HAIL             2 ESE STANLEY           35.13N 105.94W
05/28/2008  M1.75 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0409 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE STANLEY           35.12N 105.89W
05/28/2008                   SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
456 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             WHITE ROCK              35.80N 106.21W
05/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       SANTA FE           NM   PUBLIC

0442 PM     HAIL             LOS ALAMOS              35.89N 106.28W
05/28/2008  E0.75 INCH       LOS ALAMOS         NM   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             VILLANUEVA              35.27N 105.36W
05/28/2008  M2.10 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

0445 PM     HAIL             BANDELIER NATIONAL MONU 35.78N 106.27W
05/28/2008  E1.75 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             1 W RUIDOSO             33.37N 105.66W
05/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

0540 PM     HAIL             2 SSW FORT STANTON      33.47N 105.54W
05/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             10 N ESPANOLA           36.15N 106.07W
05/28/2008  E0.88 INCH       RIO ARRIBA         NM   PUBLIC

&&

50