Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 050106
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
604 PM PDT TUE SEP 4 2007

AZC015-CAC071-050114-
/O.CAN.KVEF.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-070905T0115Z/
MOHAVE AZ-SAN BERNARDINO CA-
604 PM MST TUE SEP 4 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO 
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3474 11487 3460 11458 3492 11429 3507 11452

$$

JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 PM PDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...BUT
THE DRY AIR WILL BE KEPT OUT OF MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT BY THE
APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HENRIETTE WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STORM MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE
COUNTY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS IN
PLAY AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE COLD CORE NORTHERN STREAM LOW WAS
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON AT THIS TYPING...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF IT HAD FLUSHED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF OUR CWFA. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE
BLOWING THROUGH THE NEVADA TEST SITE AREA...BUT VERY FEW SENSORS
OUTSIDE THE SITE WERE REACHING AS MUCH AS 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
PUSH EAST TOMORROW...AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH...HURRICANE HENRIETTE
MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 130
PM PDT. THE STORM HAD ALREADY TRIGGERED A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 4000 FEET AND DEWPOINTS PUSHING 80F IN
THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE IS THE PROBLEM. THERE
ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MAKES IT...AND WISH TO LEAN TOWARD THE EASTERN CLUSTER. REASONS ARE
THREEFOLD...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK HAS BEEN TRENDING GENERALLY
FARTHER EAST WITH TIME...SATELLITE LOOPS AND EXTRAPOLATION SUPPORT
THIS AS THE STORM IS NOW MAKING THE TURN AND MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH
WITH BARELY ANY ADDITIONAL WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM STORM MAY BE DIGGING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST WHICH
WOULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR HENRIETTE TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERLIES. ALL THAT BEING SAID...CHOSE TO TRIM BACK THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF POPS FOR TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT NEVER COMPLETELY
DRY OUT MOHAVE COUNTY. OKAY...THAT COVERS THE TWO LOWS...NOW FOR THE
RIDGE IN BETWEEN WHICH IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM STORM. THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PART OF OUR CWFA...AND ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW MOVING
NORTHEAST. COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS TREND
WAS EXPECTED...BUT NOT TO THIS EXTENT THIS QUICKLY. OVERALL TREND OF
DRYING IN THE NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST...BUT MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE MUCH MORE STUBBORN AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
COME DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM MOVING BY.

.LONG TERM...THE MODEL FORECASTED UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTS A DRYING TREND AREA WIDE. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM HENRIETTE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO MOHAVE CNTY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...DRY CONDITIONS CALLED FOR IN THE ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. PAINTED GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS OVER THE SW CWA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE MODEL ERROR IN SCOURING
OUT MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 13 AND 23 KTS  OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AREAS
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO CONTINUE AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

MORGAN/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 AM PDT TUE SEP 4 2007

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-050700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
550 AM PDT TUE SEP 4 2007 /550 AM MST TUE SEP 4 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EAST OF LINE
RUNNING FROM ELY TO PAHRUMP TO BARSTOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LINCOLN...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT MAY
BE ENCOUNTERED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.