Wind Advisory 23, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 AM MDT MON JUN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG CANADIAN/MT/ND BORDER THIS
MORNING. SHORTWAVE ROTATING THOUGH TROF BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN
MT WHILE ANOTHER WAVE HAS DEVELOPED AT LEADING EDGE OF JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL WY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN
WY...BLACK HILLS...AND NWRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT DONT THINK THUNDER WILL BE MUCH OF A CONCERN.
LARGE PRECIP BAND AHEAD OF LOW IS FINALLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXITING SERN CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND IT...AND COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING...WINDS SHOULD REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NWRN SD TOWARD RAPID CITY AREA. AFTER SHOWERS
CLEAR LATE TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TUES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUES NIGHT OVER FAR SRN SD AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AND LEE TROF
DEVELOPS WED FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY...THEN START WARMING DURING
THE WEEK.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNAL FOR
PROLONGED 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA. FLY IN OINTMENT IS RECENT RAINS AND MOIST GROUND. SO WILL GO
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF NEED ARISES TO RAISE ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. RIDGE RIDERS WILL BRING CHANCE -TSRA TO PERIPHERY OF THERMAL
RIDGE...BUT MAY END UP BEING CAPPED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE SD PLAINS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

SANDERS/HELEGSON

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