Wind Advisory 15, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...ZONE/GRIDS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN HALF OF CWFA AND NEW TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 09Z FOR SCNTRL SD.

ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING
ONCE 00Z DATA HAS ARRIVED AND BEEN ANALYZED ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT
ANY MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...NORTHERN
     FOOTHILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
  ...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 09Z FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CAMPBELL AND CROOK COUNTIES AND THE
     WYOMING BLACK HILLS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     WESTON COUNTY AND THE COLONY AREA.

&&

JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1115 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-291300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1115 AM MDT (1215 PM CDT) WED MAR 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL
   COUNTY IN WYOMING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE
   REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH THE BLACK HILLS...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SOUTH
   DAKOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MANY
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SPEARFISH TO FAITH. ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...THOUGH THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA COUNTIES THAT BORDER NEBRASKA.

ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MEANWHILE BACK TO THE WEST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WILL MAKE IT INTO THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY IN
WYOMING WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. BLOWING SNOW COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AREAS WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS...BUT DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR
THIS AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CAMPBELL COUNTY...ALONG WITH THE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THOSE
AREAS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 SE RED SHIRT          43.60N 102.82W
03/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       SHANNON            SD   PUBLIC

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     WALL                    43.99N 102.24W
03/28/2007  E60.00 MPH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM     HAIL             4 S PORCUPINE           43.18N 102.33W
03/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     HAIL             5 NNW KYLE              43.49N 102.23W
03/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHANNON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     HAIL             13 SE WALL              43.86N 102.05W
03/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   PUBLIC

0650 PM     HAIL             DUPREE                  45.05N 101.59W
03/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       ZIEBACH            SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0710 PM     HAIL             INTERIOR                43.73N 101.98W
03/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM     HAIL             SWETT                   43.17N 101.95W
03/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       BENNETT            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WFO UNR