High Wind Warning 11, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND COOL FRONT RUNNING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SITS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW...SKIRTING
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING AT THIS TIME.

THIS MORNING...MID AND UPPER LOW SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE LOW IS NUDGED TO
THE EAST...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE RAPID
CITY AREA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SQUEEZED JUST A LITTLE
TIGHTER...RESULTING IN WINDS THAT OCCASIONALLY REACH HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MID
EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH DAKOTA FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO RAPID CITY CORRIDOR...WHERE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE FOR BUTTE COUNTY...AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA STILL
EXISTS...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A LITTLE QUICKER.

SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER AND
DRIER...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW WL DOMINATE WX IN THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF WK
S/WS WL MV THROUGH THE FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW NOW IN NERN WY WL CONT TO MOVE EAST TODAY
ACRS WRN SD. IFR/MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS/RAIN/FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY IN ERN WY/NRN BLACK
HILLS/NWRN SD AND WRN ND. VFR CONDS AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACRS SRN SD AND WRN NEB THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
     BLACK HILLS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...AND BUTTE COUNTY.

  ...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
     SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

  ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
     SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE COLONY AREA IN
     EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-071300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1100 AM MDT (1200 PM CDT) WED JUN 6 2007

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...STURGIS
FOOTHILLS...AND BUTTE COUNTY IN SOUTH DAKOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
BUFFALO...TO PHILIP...TO MISSION. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THIS AREA AS UPSLOPE
ENHANCED RAINFALL DEVELOPS.

AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55
MPH...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FROM BUFFALO TO THE RAPID CITY
AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.