Winter Storm Watch 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST SUN DEC 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ALSO INCLUDE COOL
TEMPERATURES...AS AFTERNOON READINGS REMAIN ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ABOUT
A 150 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA.
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RATHER HIGH WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THIS MORNINGS
KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS 100+ KNOT WINDS AT AROUND 300-250MB. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...YET...WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS SRN CALIFORNIA AND SW ARIZONA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH THROUGH THE PHOENIX METRO AREA AT THIS...BUT
MY CWA IS NEARLY FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT BY THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INTO ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 5-6K FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR
SNOW PRODUCTION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MY QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (ZONE 19) AND GRAHAM
COUNTY (ZONE 30)...SUGGEST THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LOW END
OF HEAVY SNOW WARNING CRITERIA...WHICH IS TO SAY AROUND 12 INCHES OF
SNOW DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY (ZONE 33)
THE AMOUNTS ARE IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. WITH THAT SAID...I WILL BE
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 19 (NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY)...30 (GRAHAM COUNTY) AND 33 (EASTERN PIMA COUNTY) FROM
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO AROUND 4000-4500
FEET FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS.

MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT BY AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
BASES AT OR AROUND 4-6K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE...
PARTICULARLY AFTER 10/09Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR ACROSS SE AZ ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
     ZONE 19 (NORTHERN GREENLEE)...ZONE 30 (GRAHAM) AND ZONE 33
     (EASTERN PIMA) FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     ABOVE 7000 FEET.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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