Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 162254
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
353 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

AZC021-162303-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-070916T2300Z/
PINAL AZ-
353 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 400 PM MST...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KEARNY AND 
KELVIN HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.

LAT...LON 3309 11085 3294 11088 3296 11100 3321 11093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 187DEG 14KT 3313 11093

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS....A STRONG MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH AN
IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYER
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY. MOST OF THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER BUT HEAVY RAINERS AT THAT.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION IN THE PAST HOUR THAT INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WERE BEGINNING TO CLUSTER AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THIS
ORGANIZATION WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN AS A LARGER AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF PROBLEMS. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING...THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVOR FOR ORGANIZED AND LONGER
LIVED STORMS. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS TO INCREASE YET TODAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENINGS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH A
GENERAL AREA OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN FORMING OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWED A
RATHER DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLIER EVENING.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AROUND MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY MOVING INLAND AROUND
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL QUIET A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHWARD AND INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY
AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN
DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
554 AM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

AZZ019-029>035-171300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
554 AM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WITH THE TEMPORARY RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STRONG SHEAR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERATE STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH MOISTURE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.