Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 080208
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
706 PM MST FRI SEP 7 2007

AZC019-080216-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-070908T0215Z/
PIMA AZ-
706 PM MST FRI SEP 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 715 PM MST...

AT 706 PM MST THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VAIL AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 10 SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON HAD DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS...AND AN 
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3215 11077 3198 11089 3181 11071 3207 11046

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS....MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF HENRIETTE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
AS A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE OFF A BIT AND
FOCUSES IT MORE EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WAS INDICATING A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THAT APPEARED TO
BE THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE MUST HAVE SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT OVER WESTERN
PINAL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTIES AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS CIRCULATION...STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM AND FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO
NORTH OF DOUGLAS. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FORMING OVER
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT
WITH THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE TUCSON AREA. AT ANY RATE...STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WOULD EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNDOWN...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEAK OF THE CIRCULATION
LIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT INHIBITING NIGHT TIME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WAS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADING TO A POSITION OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD...MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES DRIER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SEVERAL
DEGREES OVER WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THE LARGEST JUMP
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...THEN SOMEWHAT LEVEL OFF
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE
GFS MODEL WAS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NATION WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THUS...
EXPECT TO SEE MINIMAL OR NO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE AZ
TODAY. CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRAS WILL BE AS LOW AS 1-3KFT AGL
AND VSBYS AS LOW AS 3-5SM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON