Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 242207
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
304 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2007

AZC019-021-242230-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-070824T2230Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
304 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE 
TUCSON METRO AREA...

AT 300 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST PINAL 
COUNTY THROUGH THE TUCSON METRO AREA IN NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY. 
THE STRONGEST DEVELOPING STORMS WERE NOTED NEAR CENTRAL TO EASTERN 
TUCSON. STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY BUT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUED 
ALONG BOUNDARIES NEAR THE STORMS. 

EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH 
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3206 11106 3205 11059 3273 11050 3255 11108

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...A LESS STABLE
AIRMASS...AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL COMBINE FOR A MUCH GREATER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS EXPECTED TODAY. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AS EVIDENCED BY
1.57 INCHES PW ON THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING (CONSISTENT WITH GOES
SOUNDER ESTIMATES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA)...AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. SHEAR STILL NOT GREAT BUT WARMER LOWER LEVELS AND SOME
COOLING ABOVE H5 HAS HELPED...AND A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA STILL
HINTED AT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THAT MAY BE STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PULLS
NORTHWEST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH DEBRIS
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES IN
THE FLOW. EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS INTO A BUSY...WET...AND COOLER SATURDAY.

NAM12 HAS THE MAIN SHOTGUN OF IMPULSES SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SPREADS
BACK IN FROM THE EAST. IF WE ARENT TOO WORKED OVER SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER GOOD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INITIAL
FAVORABLE 4 CORNERS POSITION...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MAY BE BUSY AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MAKE SUNDAY A
DOWN DAY. THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO A HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATING NEARLY
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...PROBABLY KNOCKING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BACK TO DOWN TO ISOLATED LEVELS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES
NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE 2-4 SM WITH BKN050 CEILINGS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON