Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 150916
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
213 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

AZC019-150923-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-070815T0915Z/
PIMA AZ-
213 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EXPIRES AT
215 AM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM...NOW LOCATED NEAR VAYA CHIN OR 10 MILES EAST OF 
HICKIWAN...WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION HAS FALLEN BELOW 
SEVERE LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 215 AM MST.

HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A STRONG STORM WHICH IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. 

LAT...LON 3202 11217 3236 11189 3251 11233 3218 11281

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
847 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN MOIST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...RESULTING IN DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WITH FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
RESULTING IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR OVER
NEW MEXICO AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA (GILA COUNTY...SOUTHEAST THROUGH
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE (ON
THE ORDER 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER) ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA. STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WAS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS COCHISE...
SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTIES. THE STORMS
THEN PROPAGATED NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA...MAINLY IN THE ORO
VALLEY AND MARANA AREAS.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN...ALTHOUGH THERE
WERE A FEW CELLS OVER COCHISE AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE EARLY EVENING WORDING
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE
TERMINAL SITES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY
ON THE WAY...WHICH WAS A BIT EARLIER OF A START COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THE STRONGER WIND PROFILE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS... BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. BEYOND TODAY...A SERIES
OF EASTERLY IMPULSES MAY IMPACT THE AREA HELPING ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NEXT ONE WAS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST APPROACHING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS CONTINUED TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THESE
FEATURES SO WILL NEED TO TAKE IT DAY-BY-DAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWED
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENING A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. POP VALUES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN A NOTCH FOR THIS SCENARIO.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

AZZ029-031>035-151915-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1214 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND A STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ONE HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WESTWARD TO SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA
COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1249 AM MST WED AUG 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SW TUCSON             32.15N 111.04W
08/15/2007                   PIMA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE NEAR IRVINGTON ROAD AND SUNSET.

&&