Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 080433
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST SAT JUL 7 2007

AZC019-080445-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070708T0445Z/
PIMA AZ-
933 PM MST SAT JUL 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MST 
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 925 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
ARIVACA MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SASABE
AND JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 286 AND ARIVACA ROAD

LAT...LON 3182 11113 3184 11121 3190 11143 3148 11164
      3137 11145 3157 11133 3155 11123

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 080444
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
942 PM MST SAT JUL 7 2007

AZC019-080452-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070708T0445Z/
PIMA AZ-
942 PM MST SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY 
EXPIRES AT 945 PM MST...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARNED ARE NOW 
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND PERIODS OF 
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1030 PM. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD 
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

LAT...LON 3182 11113 3184 11121 3190 11143 3148 11164
      3137 11145 3157 11133 3155 11123

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SAT JUL 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER WILL ALLOW
LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE TO FEED INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL TEND TO CONFINE ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40
DBZ ECHOES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 2105Z. OTHER ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS
THAN 35 DBZ ECHOES WERE OVER FAR ERN PIMA/NWRN COCHISE COUNTIES. THE
REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN COVERAGE ON FRI AS UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS
SHIFTS EWD OVER THIS FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT TO CHANGE SUBTLY SUN
AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESENTLY OVER FAR WRN AZ MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL AZ
AND THE DEFORMATION AXIS SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTS SWD INTO NRN MEXICO.
THUS EXPECT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUN...AND
A MORE PRONOUNCED DECLINE IN ACTIVITY MON. THEREAFTER...UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TAP PERHAPS STARTING AS EARLY AS TUE...THOUGH
MORE LIKELY BY THUR AS THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERS NWD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINING
NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY-MID JULY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
WETTING RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST. OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN
MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AIRMASS OVER SE ARIZONA ONLY
GRADUALLY MOISTENS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA
DECREASING THE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
POOR NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WITH CIGS MOSTLY AOA 9KFT AGL WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND. OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40-45KTS WITH LOCAL BLOWING DUST REDUCING VSBYS TO 1
MILE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
EXPECT BKN-OVC 15-25KFT AGL CLOUD BASES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON