Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 110024
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
523 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

AZC019-110033-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-070811T0030Z/
PIMA AZ-
523 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 530 PM MST...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN AJO AND 
WHY IS NO LONGER SEVERE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. THIS AREA IS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
THROUGH 645 PM. 

LAT...LON 3214 11283 3224 11266 3246 11281 3233 11303

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION AT 2105Z. OTHER SCATTERED ECHOES
WERE OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE REST
OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE MOVING NWWD OVER NRN SONORA. CONVECTIVE
CELLS WERE GENERATING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
DEMARCATION BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR WEST...AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARCING
NEWD OVER SE AZ AS DEPICTED NICELY VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

10/12Z GFS INITIALIZED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE QUITE WELL.
COCHISE COUNTY...NERN SONORA...NWRN CHIHUAHUA AND SWRN NM PRESENTLY
IN SUBSIDENCE AREA BEHIND VORT MAX GIVEN THE PRESENT PAUCITY OF
CELLS OR EVEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY BE
PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA SEWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTED NEXT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NWWD
ACROSS FAR ERN SONORA INTO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. ALSO...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAD DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG MOIST/DRY
MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER S CENTRAL NM AS WELL AS CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA.
THE UPSHOT...WILL REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW-GRADE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST SECTIONS.

UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH
AMPLE MOISTURE TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE LATTER PART OF JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST...WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECASTS OF ESSENTIALLY DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL POP
COVERAGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS EVENING...WITH BULK OF
TSRA EXPECTED TO END BY 11/09Z OR SO. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB/S WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 6-8 KFT AGL...THOUGH CIGS AS LOW AS 3 KFT AGL
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. MAINLY SCT CLOUD DECK ABOVE 12 KFT AGL
AFTER 10/09Z INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON