Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 092341
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
440 PM MST THU AUG 9 2007

AZC003-092350-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-070809T2345Z/
COCHISE AZ-
440 PM MST THU AUG 9 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 445 PM MST...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN ELFRIDA MCNEAL 
HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH 515 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3150 10961 3170 10941 3189 10972 3168 10993

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST THU AUG 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FAVORABLE FLOW RETURNS. THUS EXPECT THE DAILY CYCLE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES OVER
ERN SANTA CRUZ AND PORTIONS OF WRN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 2105Z.
STRONGEST CELLS WERE VICINITY SONOITA...PARKER CANYON LAKE...AND THE
DRAGOON MTNS. OTHER STRONG CELLS WERE DETECTED OVER NRN SONORA SE OF
KOLS AND NEAR THE FAR SE AZ/SW NM BORDER REGION. CELL MOVEMENT WAS
GENERALLY NW AROUND 10 KTS. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP
ECHOES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
MOVING NWWD OVER E CENTRAL SONORA.

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS INTO LOW-CHANCE CATEGORY THIS EVENING FROM THE TUCSON VICINITY
SEWD. GIVEN THE DRIER NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS OR SO MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. OTHERWISE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A
THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST CELLS. PER COORD WITH WFO PSR...ALSO OPTED
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL ZONES
WITH BELIEF THAT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SE AZ FRI AS GENERALLY SELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS. 09/12Z GFS STILL SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THAT FRI AND PERHAPS SAT MAY BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP OVER NRN SONORA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ADVANCING NWD AND SUBSEQUENTLY
PRIMING THIS FORECAST AREA FOR LARGER UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EITHER FRI OR SAT. THUS HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD FRI AND SAT INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY MAINLY CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS.

UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
09/12Z GFS DEPICTED SOME SEMBLANCE OF INVERTED-TROUGH FEATURE
BRUSHING THE AREA SUN NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL UPSWING IN ACTIVITY. HARD
TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME THOUGH WHICH DAY...OR DAYS...DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIALLY UP-DAYS...OR
DOWN-DAYS. SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
CLIMO POP FORECASTS FOR NOW.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSTMS THIS EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF A
GLOBE-RED ROCK-KITT PEAK LINE. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB/S WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 6-8KFT AGL...THOUGH CIGS AS LOW AS 2-3KFT AGL
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. BELIEVE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL END BY
AROUND 10/06Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -TSRA MAY YET OCCUR KTUS
VICINITY WWD UNTIL AROUND 10/12Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK ABOVE 12KFT AGL
AFTER 10/06Z INTO FRI MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON