Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 060032
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
530 PM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

AZC009-060100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070806T0100Z/
GRAHAM AZ-
530 PM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 530 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOLOMON AND HIGHWAY 70...JUST 
EAST OF SAFFORD. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EXPECT 
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3268 10963 3272 10943 3288 10940 3289 10984

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 060054
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
551 PM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

AZC009-060101-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-070806T0100Z/
GRAHAM AZ-
551 PM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 600 PM MST...

AT 551 PM MST...STORMS HAD DIMINISHED TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...BUT 
CONTINUED TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL EAST OF SAFFORD AND SOLOMON 
ALONG HIGHWAY 70. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN 
SOME AREAS JUST SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF SOLOMON...SOUTH OF AND ALONG 
HIGHWAY 70...LED TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 745 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3268 10963 3272 10943 3288 10940 3289 10984

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TURN NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE
MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
MOVES INLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TEMPORARILY PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRETTY MUCH HAS PUT A LID ON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WAS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND UP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THESE AREA HAVE HAD MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
A SOUPY ATMOSPHERE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...HAS DEVELOPED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AS THE INVERTED TROF MOVES SLOWLY WEST. THIS INVERTED TROF IN
BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR ALSO DEPICTED
ANOTHER INVERTED TROF UPSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF
DURANGO NORTH TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. EL PASO SOUNDING SHOWED A
SUBSIDENCE LAYER AROUND 500 MB WHICH HAD INITIALLY SUPPRESS ACTIVITY
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER BUT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ACTION HAS PICKED
UP. STEERING FLOW A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY (10 KTS) VERSUS THE 5 KTS
ON SATURDAY. WITH SOUPY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND BETTER AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...THIS AREA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA.

INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY BEFORE
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME DRYING
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY AS WEST COAST TROF MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL CUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOWN A BIT BUT ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IN TURN COULD DROP CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IF OVER AN AIRPORT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
609 AM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

AZZ019-030-033>035-061400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
609 AM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONTINUED
TO INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.92 INCHES. THE WINDS ALOFT...
ESPECIALLY THE WINDS THAT WILL STEER THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. WITH SUCH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY TO ONCE AGAIN BE FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO ARIZONA ON MONDAY...FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. BEYOND
MONDAY...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031-032-061400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
609 AM MST SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.92 INCHES. THE WINDS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY THE WINDS THAT
WILL STEER THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY. STORM
MOTIONS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY TO ONCE
AGAIN BE FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO ARIZONA ON MONDAY...FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS. BEYOND
MONDAY SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 PM MST SUN AUG 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 N TUCSON              32.35N 110.94W
08/04/2007                   PIMA               AZ   NEWSPAPER

            *** 2 FATAL *** LARGE WALL OF WATER AT SEVEN FALLS IN
            BEAR CANYON...50 PEOPLE SEEKED HIGHER GROUND AND MANY OF
            THOSE NEEDED TO BE RESCUED BY HELICOPTER...2 DEATHS.

&&

GLADER