Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 182250
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
348 PM MST WED JUL 18 2007

AZC019-182330-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-070718T2330Z/
PIMA AZ-
348 PM MST WED JUL 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST
FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 342 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ONE STORM WAS LOCATED OVER VAIL 
AND ANOTHER EAST OF GREEN VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING WEST AT 5 
TO 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SABINO 
CANYON...TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...SOUTH TUCSON...SAN XAVIER 
MISSION...SAHUARITA...RITA RANCH...ORO VALLEY...GREEN VALLEY... 
DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR FORCE BASE...CORONA DE TUCSON...CATALINA STATE 
PARK AND CATALINA FOOTHILLS

IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3174 11060 3221 11046 3243 11056 3242 11111
      3174 11117

$$

MOLLERE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST WED JUL 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW OCCURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
RIM...THOUGH NONE HAVE ENTERED THE CWA YET. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE
NEAREST STORMS TO BE ONE CELL SOUTHWEST OF ST JOHNS...THE OTHER EAST
OF GLOBE. NOTHING COMING DOWN AS OF THIS WRITING...BUT ONLY A MATTER
OF TIME.

OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NOTE...CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT TIA HAS PASSED THE
100 THRESHOLD...ADDING ANOTHER DAY TO THE STREAK. WILL WAIT TO
UPDATE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW UNTIL THE CLIMATE
REPORT FOR TODAY IS ISSUED AT 530 PM MST THIS EVENING. AS STATED
BELOW...CURRENT FORECAST DOES KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FOR TUCSON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STAY TUNED
TO SEE IF THE RECORD IS BROKEN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASED MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
STARTING TOMORROW WITH FRIDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...THUS PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE
DETAILED DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL DATA...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREV
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
45 TO 75 PERCENT RANGE...WITH VALUES DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT BKN090CB...VRB WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO UNDER 3 SM IN BLOWING DUST WITH STORMS THIS
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAK OF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 100 OR GREATER AT THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS REACHED 35 DAYS ON
TUESDAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 100 OR
HIGHER EACH DAY THROUGH JULY 22ND...WHICH WOULD BREAK THE ALL-TIME
RECORD OF 39 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS ALSO
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK WHICH
COULD PUT IN JEOPARDY ANY DAY AFTER TODAY FOR HITTING 100 DEGREES.
IN ANY EVENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER HISTORIC RUN OF 100+ TEMPERATURES
FOR TUCSON.

TOP 5 LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAKS OF HIGHS 100 DEGREES OR BETTER:

1) 39 DAYS IN 2005 (JUNE 14TH TO JULY 22ND)
   39 DAYS IN 1987 (JUNE 7TH TO JULY 15TH)
3) 35 DAYS IN 2007 (JUNE 13TH TO JULY 17TH) ***
4) 33 DAYS IN 2002 (JUNE 13TH TO JULY 15TH)
5) 32 DAYS IN 1942 (JUNE 13TH TO JULY 14TH)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A QUIET START TO THE MORNING...AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
NORTH OF PHX WITHERING AWAY...WITH A FEW STRAY CLOUDS MOVING IN OVER
DOUGLAS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA...ACCORDING TO ASOS
STATIONS...REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH
OF MOISTURE OVER THE STATE CURRENTLY...WITH DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FEATURE OF INTEREST HERE IS THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THAT DRIER AIR OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AS THIS
WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENT
GOES PW IMAGERY SHOWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER OF PW OVER TUCSON
AND AREAS WEST...WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE EAST. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING
SHOWS 1.36...SO GOOD AGREEMENT THERE. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS ATMOSPHERE
TO BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...SO EXPECTING A TYPICAL MONSOON DAY TODAY
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY KICKING UP BY AFTERNOON.

MODEL DATA SHOWS TODAY TO BE THE WEAKEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...NOT THAT THIS FACT SHOULD LULL ANY INTO A FALSE SENSE OF
SECURITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN REAL ESTATE CONDUCIVE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A MOISTURE
INFLUX STARTING TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PULL TO THE NORTH...PULLING UP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS WILL KEEP
30-40 PCT AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS IN FOR AREAS TUCSON EAST WITH 20S
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. CURRENT MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT THIS
MOISTURE INCURSION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. WILL RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION
FOR NOW...ALLOWING FUTURE SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY.

WILL DO SOME MINOR TWEAKS/UPDATES TO FORECAST...BUT EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/PREV DISCUSSION...SMR
EVERYTHING ELSE...JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
622 AM MST WED JUL 18 2007

AZZ019-030-033>035-191300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
622 AM MST WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAINTAIN AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A FEW APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-191300-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
622 AM MST WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAINTAIN AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A FEW APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-191300-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
622 AM MST WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 107 TO 111 RANGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAN MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND ALSO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...EXPECT EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A FEW APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BISBEE-DOUGLAS AI 31.45N 109.60W
07/18/2007  M66 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

&&

PYTLAK