Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 150145
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
644 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2007

AZC009-011-150200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-070715T0200Z/
GRAHAM AZ-GREENLEE AZ-
644 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST
FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 636 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFTON...OR ABOUT 25
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF GREENLEE AND EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3300 10915 3314 10933 3290 10951 3271 10950
      3267 10922

$$

BF

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 150204
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
700 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2007

AZC009-011-150210-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-070715T0200Z/
GRAHAM AZ-GREENLEE AZ-
700 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND EAST
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 700 PM MST...

AT 700 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DECREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GREENLEE 
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY 
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY EAST OF SAFFORD. THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL 
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3300 10915 3314 10933 3290 10951 3271 10950
      3267 10922

$$

BF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARIZONA.
COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WAS A LITTLE
MORE MOIST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWED THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CELL CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...WITH THE STEERING
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOUD MASS
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHICH WAS LIKELY LEFTOVER FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING. SKIES IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE CLEARED SOME THIS MORNING AS IT TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS CLEARING WAS ENOUGH FOR
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT UP NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 2PM
MST...RADAR WAS DETECTING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS WAS FORMING
ALONG THE RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS
NEAR THE BORDER AND ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY CAN GET BETTER ORGANIZED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS(INCLUDING
TUCSON) WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY MONDAY. THE
GENERAL THINKING WAS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A MORE
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW WILL SETUP WITH THIS PATTERN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TURN...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE 45 TO 75 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH VALUES DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING MAINLY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON