Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 052206
RFWTWC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
306 PM MST SAT MAY 5 2007

AZZ148-052315-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-070506T0100Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
306 PM MST SAT MAY 5 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

MANY STATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN PIMA...GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF THE
GILA RIVER...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES HAVE FAILED TO REACH
THE 15 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ALONG
WITH THE NATURAL INCREASE IN RH VALUES HAVING PASSED THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY...HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THIS THRESHOLD
WILL BE CROSSED IN WIDESPREAD AREAS. FOR THIS REASON...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELED THE RED FLAG WARNING.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
STILL REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT AGAIN...WIDESPREAD OR LONG
LIVED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CREWS IN THE FIELD
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MAINTAIN CLOSE OBSERVATION OF CONDITIONS AND USE
APPROPRIATE CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST SAT MAY 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED BULK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WITH BULK OF MOISTURE UP NORTH...THE WHITES WILL
SEE THE BEST SHOT OF ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY WHERE SPEEDS
THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN THE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR
COCHISE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM. THIS FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE STATE AND ENHANCE
THE TROF OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AIR
ALOFT OVER THE AREA BUT IT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL HAVE TO WORK
ON MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY THE FIRST FEATURE. WILL KEEP TOKEN POPS
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

TROFINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS RISE...RESULTING IN A SLOW WARMING
TREND. COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE SNEAK IN FROM THE EAST AS MODELS ARE
INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE.
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW END POPS TO AREAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
TUESDAY.

THE TROF FINALLY EXITS THE STATE MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE STATE RESULTING IN A STRONG WARMING TREND INTO THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAIN CONCERN TODAY
WILL BE IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESIDES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 12 TO 17 PERCENT RANGE. WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
PLACE AND THE FACT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TODAY VERSUS FRIDAY
WILL HOIST ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 148 STARTING AT HIGH
NOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL 6 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED 10-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS IN PLACES. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TODAY TO BE IN THE 15-25
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. COULD SEE SOME VERY LOCAL
VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM IN BLDU. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF OR TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR PUBLIC ZONE AZZ035 UNTIL 6 PM MST.
   RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 FROM 12 NOON
    UNTIL 6 PM MST.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
811 PM MST FRI MAY 4 2007

AZZ019-029>035-050415-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
811 PM MST FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.