Freeze Warning 3, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS75 KTWC 161611
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
911 AM MST TUE JAN 16 2007

AZZ029-031>033-161715-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070116T1600Z/
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
911 AM MST TUE JAN 16 2007

...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE FREEZE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
221 PM MST MON JAN 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH ANOTHER MORNING OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ALONG WITH COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING A VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE OLD PUEBLO HAVE SET NEW
RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. PLEASE LOOK AT THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EITHER SET OR TIED RECORD LOW TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS SE AZ
INCLUDING SE PINAL AND PIMA COUNTIES. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKING SE
DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE WINDS FROM WREAKING
HAVOC ON THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IN ANY EVENT...WILL GO WITH ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE WARNING AGAIN TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY
MORNING.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CLOSING ITSELF OFF AND SITUATING
ITSELF AS A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CANADIAN...ECMWF AND UKMET THAN WITH ITS 06Z RUN WITH EXTENT TO HOW
FAR WEST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS LOW SETS-UP. IN ANY
EVENT...THIS SHOULD DRAW IN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW INTO SE AZ BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. I WILL
EXPAND CHANCES AND AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EXTEND THEM INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PROBLEM WITH CUTOFF LOWS IS
THAT THEY TEND TO HAVE A MIND OF THEIR OWN...AND MAY DELAY THE ONSET
OF PCPN TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY DECIDE TO
POSITION THEMSELVES AND WHEN THEY DECIDE THEY WANT TO EJECT.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEVERAL RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE SET OR TIED FOR JANUARY 15TH..

SITE                TEMPERATURE TODAY        PREVIOUS RECORD AND YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT     20 (NEW)                23 IN 1964
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT  9  (NEW)                16 IN 1962
SIERRA VISTA            18 (NEW)                21 IN 1937
ORGAN PIPE              27 (TIED)               27 IN 1989

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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