Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 110034
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
529 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

AZC019-110145-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-070811T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
529 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MST FOR
NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 520 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM THE PUERTO BLANCO 
MOUNTAINS NORTH TOWARD AJO AND THEN EAST TOWARD HICKIWAN. MOVEMENT 
OF THESE STORMS IS TO THE WEST AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE 
PUERTO BLANCO MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT RAIN 
FROM ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT SOUTH TO LUKEVILLE WHERE UP 
TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD POSSIBLY FALLEN BETWEEN 315 PM AND 430 PM.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3251 11250 3185 11272 3202 11326 3250 11315

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION AT 2105Z. OTHER SCATTERED ECHOES
WERE OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE REST
OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE MOVING NWWD OVER NRN SONORA. CONVECTIVE
CELLS WERE GENERATING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ALONG THE
DEMARCATION BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR WEST...AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARCING
NEWD OVER SE AZ AS DEPICTED NICELY VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

10/12Z GFS INITIALIZED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE QUITE WELL.
COCHISE COUNTY...NERN SONORA...NWRN CHIHUAHUA AND SWRN NM PRESENTLY
IN SUBSIDENCE AREA BEHIND VORT MAX GIVEN THE PRESENT PAUCITY OF
CELLS OR EVEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY BE
PRELUDE OF THINGS TO COME FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA SEWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTED NEXT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NWWD
ACROSS FAR ERN SONORA INTO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. ALSO...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAD DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG MOIST/DRY
MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER S CENTRAL NM AS WELL AS CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA.
THE UPSHOT...WILL REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ALTHOUGH WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW-GRADE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST SECTIONS.

UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH
AMPLE MOISTURE TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE LATTER PART OF JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST...WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECASTS OF ESSENTIALLY DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL POP
COVERAGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS EVENING...WITH BULK OF
TSRA EXPECTED TO END BY 11/09Z OR SO. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB/S WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 6-8 KFT AGL...THOUGH CIGS AS LOW AS 3 KFT AGL
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. MAINLY SCT CLOUD DECK ABOVE 12 KFT AGL
AFTER 10/09Z INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON