Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 042351
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
443 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

AZC009-050115-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-070805T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
443 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 440 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NEAR SAFFORD AND NORTHWARD...NEAR FORT 
THOMAS. STORM MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF SAFFORD WILL 
ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES 
WERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES NEAR SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION TO EAST OF 
HIGHWAY 191...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AROUND PORTIONS OF 
SAFFORD. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
WASHES...STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS 
OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3253 10973 3279 10928 3329 10978 3294 11019

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 050040
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
538 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

AZC009-050115-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-070805T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
538 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 531 PM MST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DIMINISHING ACROSS 
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH AND 
EAST OF SAFFORD AS WELL AS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 70 WILL ALSO 
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE 
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES NEAR SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 
191...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AROUND PORTIONS OF SAFFORD. 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
WASHES...STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS 
OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3253 10973 3279 10928 3329 10978 3294 11019

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TURN NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS POPPED UP PRETTY QUICKLY
TODAY ONCE SOME HOLES POPPED UP IN THE MORNING DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD.
GROUND TRUTH FROM RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT DOPPLER RADAR HAS
DEPICTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS REALLY WELL TODAY. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN IN THE ONE INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS JUST OVER TWO
INCHES. SOUPY ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE AROUND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MOVING SLOWLY WEST WITH PIECES OF ENERGY
WORKING ON THE SOUPY ATMOSPHERE TO DEVELOP SLOW MOVING DUMPERS.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH GRADE MONSOON FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OF THE WEST
COAST. THIS MOST LIKELY BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BREAK TO THE
2007 SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN...THEN THEY WILL BE AT SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH IN TURN COULD DROP CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IF OVER AN AIRPORT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRG
AVIATION...GWS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

AZZ019-030-033>035-051400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
615 AM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO IS HELPING
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
WINDS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY THE WINDS THAT WILL STEER THE STORMS ARE
RATHER LIGHT...SO STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY TO BE FLOODING
ISSUES. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURSTS WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER ARIZONA ON MONDAY...FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. BEYOND MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031-032-051400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
615 AM MST SAT AUG 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO IS HELPING
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
WINDS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY THE WINDS THAT WILL STEER THE STORMS ARE
RATHER LIGHT...SO STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY TO BE FLOODING
ISSUES. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURSTS WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER ARIZONA ON MONDAY...FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. BEYOND MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.