Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS55 KTWC 020455
FFWTWC
AZC019-023-020700-
/X.EXT.KTWC.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-070802T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
954 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREEN VALLEY...
  EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST

* AT 948 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
UP TO 3.00 INCHES OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS BETWEEN VAIL AND 
SAHUARITA...COLOSSAL CAVE ROAD...HOUGHTON ROAD SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 
10...WENTWORTH ROAD...SAHUARITA ROAD AND SANTA RITA ROAD NEAR 
SAHUARITA WERE ALL REPORTED TO BE FLOODED.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR SAHUARITA...WHERE 2.00 TO 3.00 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST ONE HOUR. 

ALL WASHES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE ABOVE BANKFULL. 

ADDITIONALLY THE PANTANO WASH FROM VAIL TO TUCSON WILL HAVE A RAPID 
RISE...THE WASH ALREADY HAS SEVERAL FEET OF FLOW NEAR VAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SONOITA TO MADERA 
CANYON TO PATAGONIA LAKE. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE FROM 1.00 TO 3.00 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAHUARITA

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3150 11097 3134 11076 3135 11046 3221 11047
      3219 11088 3203 11099 3189 11109

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SHOEMAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A FEW MORE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS. AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY SPREAD DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO GET STARTED TO TODAY
AS THE CAP ALOFT SEEMS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED. A FEW TOWERING CU HAVE
POPPED THE CAP TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND
BECOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE CAP/S STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. AND SINCE THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID ATMOSPHERE IS WEAK...HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

AT 130 PM MST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
NEW MEXICO IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH AS THE NAM AND GFS MODELS
FORECAST...HOWEVER IT IS FURTHER WEST. SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO ARIZONA
ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE FELT IN COCHISE COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND
BEARS WATCHING.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE AREA FOR
CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE AN INVERTED
TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHERN SONORA...MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE GFS THEN
FORECASTS THE WAVE TO GET CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE TROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY MOVES IT ACROSS ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER
DYNAMICAL FORCING PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A TREND
FOR LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO MTNS SO FAR...BUT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SE WINDS ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH NW AND PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO ALL TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY TSTM COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO IFR...CIGS TO MVFR...AND GUSTS TO 40KTS.
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT SO FAR...THE RISK FOR MULTI-HOUR TSRA AT ANY
ONE SITE IS DIMINISHING...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND REMOVE
TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED. EXPECTING DEBRIS 120-150 CLOUD DECKS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE NOT CARRIED THAT IN TAFS OR
TWEBS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...EVANS
AVIATION...PYTLAK
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1047 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007

AZZ019-029>035-020700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1047 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN NEAR MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE STEERING WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT.
HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST MID LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS SLOWLY TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST
CHIHUAHUA WAS ALSO MOVING TOWARD COCHISE COUNTY...AND MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE TODAY. THUS IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER ONCE THEY DO...THEY WILL AGAIN HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLUSTER AND MERGE...WHILE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED. REGARDLESS IF THE THEY BECOME ORGANIZED OR NOT...ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
LIKELY CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. INITIALLY IT APPEARED THAT THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT A NEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND MOVE WEST TOWARD THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS COULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK