Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 020310
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
803 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

AZC009-020345-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070802T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
803 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 803 PM MST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN SAFFORD REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OF KIDWELL WASH AND SANCHEZ ROAD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF 
SAFFORD. WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1.00 AND 2.00 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SAFFORD AND WILL IMPACT AIRPORT 
AND SOLOMON PASS ROADS.

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ALSO ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN NEAR THE WHITLOCK MOUNTAINS FROM THE 
STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL IS RESULTING IN FLASH 
FLOODING OF WHITLOCK WASH AND SLICK ROCK WASH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 70 
EAST OF SAFFORD. 

LAT...LON 3251 10949 3251 10922 3272 10922 3277 10927
      3285 10935 3305 10949 3289 10982

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 020327
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
824 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

AZC009-020345-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070802T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
824 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST FOR
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 824 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING NEAR FORT THOMAS. HOT 
SPRINGS AND MARKHAM WASH ARE LIKELY FILLED WITH SWIFT MOVING WATER. 

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN SAFFORD REPORTED FLASH FLOODING OF KIDWELL 
WASH AND SANCHEZ ROAD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF SAFFORD. WEATHER 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1.00 AND 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
ACROSS NORTHEAST SAFFORD AND WILL IMPACT AIRPORT AND SOLOMON PASS 
ROADS AS WELL AS LONE STAR AND TIDWELL WASHES.

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ALSO ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN NEAR THE WHITLOCK MOUNTAINS FROM THE 
STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL IS RESULTING IN FLASH 
FLOODING OF WHITLOCK WASH AND SLICK ROCK WASH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 70 
EAST OF SAFFORD. 

LAT...LON 3251 10949 3251 10922 3272 10922 3277 10927
      3285 10935 3321 10984 3297 11018

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 020347
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

AZC009-020354-
/X.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070802T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
844 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM MST FOR SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING NEAR FORT THOMAS. HOT SPRINGS AND MARKHAM 
WASH ARE LIKELY FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER. 

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN SAFFORD REPORTED KIDWELL WASH WAS FLOWING 
WITH RUNNING WATER NEAR SANCHEZ ROAD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF 
SAFFORD. WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1.00 AND 2.00 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST SAFFORD AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT AIRPORT AND SOLOMON PASS ROADS...AS WELL AS LONE STAR AND 
TIDWELL WASHES.

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ALSO ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN NEAR THE WHITLOCK MOUNTAINS FROM THE 
STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL IS RESULTING IN MINOR 
FLOODING OF WHITLOCK WASH AND SLICK ROCK WASH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 70 
EAST OF SAFFORD. 

SINCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 845 PM MST. HOWEVER...A URBAN 
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 
1145 PM MST.


LAT...LON 3251 10949 3251 10922 3272 10922 3277 10927
      3285 10935 3321 10984 3297 11018

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST WED AUG 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A FEW MORE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS. AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY SPREAD DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO GET STARTED TO TODAY
AS THE CAP ALOFT SEEMS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED. A FEW TOWERING CU HAVE
POPPED THE CAP TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND
BECOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE CAP/S STRENGTH SHOULD DIMINISH RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. AND SINCE THE
FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID ATMOSPHERE IS WEAK...HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

AT 130 PM MST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
NEW MEXICO IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH AS THE NAM AND GFS MODELS
FORECAST...HOWEVER IT IS FURTHER WEST. SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO ARIZONA
ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE FELT IN COCHISE COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND
BEARS WATCHING.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE AREA FOR
CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER WILL BE AN INVERTED
TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHERN SONORA...MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE GFS THEN
FORECASTS THE WAVE TO GET CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE TROUGH
AND EVENTUALLY MOVES IT ACROSS ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER
DYNAMICAL FORCING PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A TREND
FOR LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO MTNS SO FAR...BUT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SE WINDS ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH NW AND PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO ALL TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY TSTM COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO IFR...CIGS TO MVFR...AND GUSTS TO 40KTS.
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT SO FAR...THE RISK FOR MULTI-HOUR TSRA AT ANY
ONE SITE IS DIMINISHING...SO WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND REMOVE
TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED. EXPECTING DEBRIS 120-150 CLOUD DECKS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN...WE COULD AGAIN SEE PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE NOT CARRIED THAT IN TAFS OR
TWEBS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...EVANS
AVIATION...PYTLAK
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1047 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007

AZZ019-029>035-020700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1047 AM MST WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN NEAR MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE STEERING WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT.
HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST MID LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS SLOWLY TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHWEST
CHIHUAHUA WAS ALSO MOVING TOWARD COCHISE COUNTY...AND MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS YESTERDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE TODAY. THUS IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER ONCE THEY DO...THEY WILL AGAIN HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLUSTER AND MERGE...WHILE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED. REGARDLESS IF THE THEY BECOME ORGANIZED OR NOT...ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
LIKELY CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE A BIT LESS
WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. INITIALLY IT APPEARED THAT THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT A NEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND MOVE WEST TOWARD THE REGION BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS COULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK