Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 280117
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
612 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

AZC003-280200-
/X.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-070728T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
612 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 608 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY NEAR 
KANSAS SETTLEMENT. WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AN AREA BOUNDED BY 
THE DRAGOON MOUNTAINS...THE TOWN OF COCHISE...KANSAS SETTLEMENT AND 
THE TOWN OF SUNSITES HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OF ROADWAY DIPS....ESPECIALLY ALONG COCHISE STRONGHOLD 
ROAD...DRAGOON ROAD AND KANSAS SETTLEMENT ROAD. 

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE. DO NOT 
UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3218 10978 3204 11005 3191 10985 3206 10966

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL STEER A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCES WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THESE DISTURBANCES...COUPLED WITH REINFORCING MOISTURE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SHOULD LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
MOSTLY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ACTION HAS STARTED IN THE
VALLEYS. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAS BEEN RATHER SQUIRRLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THESE STORMS LIKELY ARE MOVING WHERE THEY
CAN FIND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...SORT OF LIKE PLAYING THE PACMAN
ARCADE GAME. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN THE
COLUMN UP TO 20K. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE VALLEYS NEEDING OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROF APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS FEATURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR
LUBBOCK. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE INCREASING...THUS INCREASING THE
THREAT OF WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY....WHICH COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL IS
TARGETING EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH AN INVERTED TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THUS
WILL CONTINUE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING WITH KOLS AND KDUG HAVING BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING STORM ACTIVITY. CB BASES COULD AGAIN GET AS LOW AS 5-7KFT
AGL WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 45KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AND TWEB AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JRG

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
308 PM MST FRI JUL 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SIERRA VISTA            31.55N 110.29W
07/27/2007                   COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING AT 1ST AND FRY BLVD

&&

JGLUECK