Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2007

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 30, 2007Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Sep 30, 2007, 7:48 PM CDT for Delaware County, Mayes County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 30, 2007, 7:48 PM CDT (00:48 UTC)
Expired: Sep 30, 2007, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 886 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1191 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 232 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.9
Supercell composite: 5.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 30, 3:22 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 3:22 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH ADVERTISED COOL FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT WICHITA TO ENID TO GRANITE. SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION PLACES FRONT TO NEAR TULSA BY 00Z WITH A RAPID DROP
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. NARROW LINE OF STRONG
STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT FROM NE KANSAS BACK TO NEAR
I-35 CORRIDOR IN NC OKLAHOMA. ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE GRIDS SHOWS
FRONT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS NORTH OF I-40
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC BASED CAPES 2000-2500 THROUGH
MUCH OF EASTERN OK.

BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED LATER
TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BUT WITH A REDUCED SEVERE THREAT. DRY AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...AND
GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS A LITTLE OVER NE OKLAHOMA.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE
AIRMASS CHANGE MONDAY WITH MOISTURE LURKING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
GRADUALLY SURGING NORTH AGAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS DEEPER AND THUS A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SIG
RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY. AGAIN THOUGHT THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF FRONT IS NOT GREAT AND WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TE WEEK.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH TIME BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST
REAL COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  85  72  86 /  10   0  10  60
FSM   67  87  68  89 /  40  10   0  20
MLC   67  88  69  88 /  40  10  10  20
BVO   54  85  66  83 /  10   0  10  70
FYV   61  82  62  85 /  50   0   0  30
BYV   60  82  64  84 /  50   0   0  40
MKO   62  85  69  87 /  50   0  10  50
MIO   55  84  66  85 /  50   0  10  60
F10   64  85  69  87 /  40   0  10  40
HHW   72  88  69  89 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 1:01 PM CDT, 6 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS A SCATTERED OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT...THE
AIRMASS IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 TO 1500 EXPECTED. THIS INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO CREATE A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BIT SUFFICIENT TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES...MAINLY IN
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...AFTER 4 PM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND AFTER 6 PM IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION. $$

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 6:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

OKZ056>058-302345-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-
602 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND EASTERN NOWATA

AT 602 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF HOLLOW TO 14 MILES WEST OF
CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...COMMERCE...CARDIN...PICHER...
CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND
WELCH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9478 3674 9508 3672 9561 3699 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 265DEG 28KT 3699 9530 3673 9557

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 6:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

OKZ057-058-010015-
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
635 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG AND OTTAWA

AT 635 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARDIN TO 4 MILES WEST OF
PYRAMID CORNERS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...NARCISSA...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER...PYRAMID
CORNERS...BLUEJACKET AND WELCH.

THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ACROSS
NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY...AND WILL PASS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3677 9463 3676 9537 3699 9512 3699 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 263DEG 40KT 3699 9486 3680 9521

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 6:49 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Sep 30, 7:05 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

OKZ060>062-067-010045-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
705 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN ROGERS...TULSA AND
     WESTERN MAYES

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF FOYIL TO 7 MILES WEST OF TULSA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...INOLA...CATOOSA...
VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...OWASSO...BROKEN ARROW...ONETA AND PRYOR.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3634 9518 3594 9576 3617 9605 3619 9603
      3618 9601 3620 9601 3648 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 295DEG 18KT 3642 9565 3611 9604

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 7:29 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
729 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

OKZ057-058-060>063-067-010100-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER
OK-
729 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER...SOUTHERN ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN
     DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...EASTERN TULSA
     AND NORTHERN MAYES

AT 729 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF AFTON TO TULSA...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...TULSA...CLEORA...BERNICE...CLAREMORE...INOLA...CATOOSA...
VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...FOYIL...BUSHYHEAD...AFTON...FAIRLAND...VINITA...
KETCHUM...BIG CABIN...WHITE OAK...PRYOR...STRANG...ADAIR...
PENSACOLA...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3674 9462 3607 9550 3616 9592 3677 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 274DEG 34KT 3674 9488 3616 9580

Special weather statement, Sep 30, 7:48 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

OKZ057-058-062-063-010115-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
748 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND MAYES

AT 748 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF WYANDOTTE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
PRYOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...JAY...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...
GROVE...BERNICE...FAIRLAND...WYANDOTTE...KETCHUM...PRYOR...MAZIE...
MURPHY...CHOUTEAU...LOCUST GROVE...SALINA...SPAVINAW...STRANG...
ADAIR...PENSACOLA...LANGLEY AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3688 9463 3639 9461 3607 9544 3626 9545
      3626 9543 3637 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 313DEG 29KT 3679 9459 3635 9529

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 30, 7:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa	40 min
Sep 30, 7:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	31 min
Sep 30, 8:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware	45 min
Sep 30, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	53 min
Sep 30, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	62 min
Sep 30, 10:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee	46 min
Sep 30, 10:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Sequoyah	43 min
Sep 30, 11:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	31 min
Sep 30, 8:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	51 min
Sep 30, 9:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	43 min
Sep 30, 10:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	26 min
Sep 30, 10:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison, Washington	52 min
Sep 30, 11:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	44 min
Sep 30, 11:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	43 min
Oct 1, 12:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2007 Every special weather statement in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.