Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
223 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER... THE CLEARING LINE HAS NOT MOVED EASTWARD MUCH AT
ALL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CORNER OF
OSAGE COUNTY. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE RUC AND NAM MODELS
WHICH TENDS TO MAKE THEIR OVERNIGHT SOLUTIONS BELIEVABLE.

AS SUCH... AM EXPECTING ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF OUR ARKANSAS
COUNTIES BY 00Z AND HAVE NO POPS TONIGHT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEND
ZONES WITH PRE-FIRST PERIOD WORDING FOR THE ONGOING PRECIP. CLOUDS
MAY CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH THOUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC ARE VERY
RELUCTANT TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT... AND
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WITH CALM CONDITIONS AND A MOIST GROUND... CLOUD COVER OR LACK
THEREOF WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENTLY HAVE NO MENTION
OF FOG IN THE GRIDS... HOWEVER... THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
TAKE A LATER LOOK AT BOTH THE FORECAST MINIMUMS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG.

BEGINNING TOMORROW... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
FOR US INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD
SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TO TRAVERSE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL RAISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION... A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

AFTER A DRY MONDAY... POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVES AGAIN
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  85  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   63  88  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   62  88  58  86 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   51  86  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  83  48  82 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   57  80  52  81 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   56  84  54  84 /  10   0   0   0
F10   61  85  57  85 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   68  88  61  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....06

BAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1246 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONINTUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS WELL.  A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LIES
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THURDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

OKZ053-262000-
CHOCTAW OK-
225 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CHOCTAW

AT 225 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HUGO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...ORD...FROGVILLE...GRANT...GOODLAND...
SAWYER...MESSER...KENT...FALLON AND SPEER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3390 9557 3393 9556 3394 9560 3411 9563
      3413 9527 3388 9529 3388 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 276DEG 9KT 3400 9550