Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION NOTED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN REGION OF ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHORT TERM MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS REGION OF FORCING EASTWARD BUT WEAKEN IT TOWARD
MORNING. RESULTANT PRECIP CONFIGURATION WILL BE TO MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS FORCING WEAKENS AND CAP STRENGTHENS AS LOW LEVEL
PROFILES WARM AND PUSH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.

ATTENTION TURNS TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
ENFORCED BY THE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OF HENRIETTE...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS
IT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. THIS COMPOSITE OF
UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
WEAK BUT SUSTAINED FORCING ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF PREVAILING
WESTERLIES IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

MORE AGREEMENT TONIGHT FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LONGWAVE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE DEFINED AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPEARS FORMIDABLE...AND CURRENT
TIMING IS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE IN ITS
ADVANCE WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  75  86  72 /  20  20  70  60
FSM   90  73  88  72 /  20  10  50  60
MLC   89  74  87  72 /  10  20  60  60
BVO   91  72  84  69 /  30  30  70  50
FYV   85  71  85  69 /  30  10  60  60
BYV   83  70  85  69 /  40  10  60  60
MKO   89  72  88  72 /  20  20  60  60
MIO   87  73  85  70 /  40  20  70  60
F10   89  74  87  72 /  20  20  60  60
HHW   90  75  89  73 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1225 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER
               OF ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY... INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDING WITHIN THE AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.  A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN AT THAT TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY RAINS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

ARZ001-010-061000-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
413 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN BENTON

AT 413 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WEDINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROCKY COMFORT...SHADY GROVE...
HARMON...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...HIGHFILL...VAUGHN...
WEDINGTON...SAVOY...WHEELER...JOHNSON...TONTITOWN...ELM SPRINGS AND
OAK GROVE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3611 9455 3602 9440 3610 9409 3633 9434