Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION. ONE
LARGE AREA OF OUTFLOW-INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY... NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM OSAGE TO OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POP ALIGNMENT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS.

HAVE ADJUSTED MANY HOURLY GRIDS BUT HAVE NOT CHANGED FORECAST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINFALL
DEPENDENT. TULSA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND RIVERSIDE AIRPORT HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THEIR FORECAST MINIMUMS IN RAIN COOLED AIR. EXPECT
THAT THEY WILL TEND TO RISE OR REMAIN STEADY FROM HERE.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MOST OF THE DAY FROM WRN INTO
NERN OK...ALONG/NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BROAD ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS HELD DOWN
INSTABILITY SOME...BUT AREAS ACROSS NE OK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST LATE
AFTERNOON SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 35-40 KTS). ACCORDINGLY...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
NE OK. PWS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES AND VERY IMPRESSIVE H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS NOTED ACROSS NCTNRL/NERN OK. TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE WEAK OUTFLOW(S) REMAINS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK HAS REMAINED S OF THE AREA
OF CONCERN...SO WE/RE NOT PLANNING ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE BOUNDARY(S) EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SE OK/WCNTRL AR BY
SATURDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN W...BUT WITH
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS.

BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT BY SUNDAY...WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING. SHOULD
BE ANOTHER HOT AND STICKY DAY...WITH TEMPS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS RIDGE BUILDS
IN THE WRN STATES.

AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TUESDAY...PLAN ON INTRODUCING LOW POPS
WEDNESDAY AS WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER FLOW APPEAR AND COLD FRONT
NEARS. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING S THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...LESS OPPRESSIVE TEMPS ARE IN
THE OFFING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  73  96 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   74  94  72  98 /  40  30  10  10
MLC   75  96  70  97 /  30  30  20  10
BVO   70  89  67  94 /  80  20  10  10
FYV   69  90  65  92 /  70  30  10  10
BYV   70  89  66  92 /  80  30  10  10
MKO   72  90  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   70  90  68  93 /  80  20  10  10
F10   73  92  71  96 /  60  30  10  10
HHW   77  95  72  97 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
740 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
740 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THE INITIAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS WEAKENED
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE THE EARLIER RAINFALL HAS STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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