Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  THE HEAT WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY. EXPANDED
HEAT WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT AND EXPECTED WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

CHOSE TO KEEP WARNING DURATION ONLY TO SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE A DROP IN DEW POINTS EARLIER NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD LOWER THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE HEAT INDEX. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 100 DEGREE RANGE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH AND COULD EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE IF THE
DEW POINTS DRY OUT SOME.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL OTHER THAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  A BONDARY LEFT OVER FROM
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY SPAWN A STORM OR TWO IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE ANYTHING COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77 100  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   74 101  74 101 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   72  97  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   74 101  74 101 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   72  96  72  96 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   70  93  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   74 100  74 100 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   74  97  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
F10   73  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   74  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ075.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
                                ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
HAS ENDED BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER COULD TRIGGER
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COLLAPSES.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 113 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT STRESS AND THE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES ARE INCREASING AS THIS
PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LENGTHENS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REMAINING VERY WARM OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PROVIDING LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAN FOR HEAT RELATED
RESPONSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

ARZ002-092145-
CARROLL AR-
416 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 416 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF URBANETTE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...PLEASANT RIDGE...
DENVER...COIN...URBANETTE AND GRANDVIEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3652 9362 3644 9371 3627 9329 3649 9327