Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA
WEAKENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A BIT A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DOWNBURST WINDS OF AROUND 65 MPH THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STARTING ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. SO...I WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.  WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH POPS TAPERING
OFF FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A DRY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  94  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   71  93  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLC   70  92  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   68  92  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   66  88  67  90 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   69  89  68  90 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   71  91  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   71  93  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
F10   70  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   72  92  72  93 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...ENDING BY LATE EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO PROMOTE A RISK OF DOWNBURST WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS REQUIRED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCAL
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO MINIMAL.  A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
BY LATE WEEK WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

ARZ002-162230-
CARROLL AR-
457 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL CARROLL

AT 457 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GRANDVIEW...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...OAK HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA
SPRINGS...URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW AND BEAVER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3632 9350 3650 9349 3653 9379 3631 9379

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