Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTREMELY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
GREATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SMALL TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE LOW.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH FINALLY OPENING UP THE LOW BY MONDAY
MORNING AND SWINGING THE RESULTANT WAVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION
BY TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS... HEALTHY RAIN CHANCE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... AND HAVE ACTUALLY RAISED POPS
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY. THE PERSISTENTLY ANEMIC UPPER FLOW WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM DIPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
KANSAS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY... AND HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
STRENGTHENING... WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SPELL OF DRY WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  83  68  87 /  30  70  50  40
FSM   69  81  69  89 /  50  70  50  40
MLC   68  81  68  87 /  50  60  30  40
BVO   65  82  65  87 /  30  60  40  40
FYV   65  79  65  84 /  40  70  50  40
BYV   65  79  64  83 /  40  70  40  40
MKO   67  79  68  86 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   68  81  65  85 /  30  60  40  30
F10   68  81  68  85 /  40  60  40  40
HHW   69  83  69  88 /  50  50  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...IN AREA THAT EXPERIENCES A THUNDERSTORM WILL RECEIVE
BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DUE TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
MID-WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

OKZ049-053-172030-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHOCTAW AND WESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 248 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM DELA TO 3 MILES EAST OF ORD...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
HUGO...ORD...GRANT...SAWYER...FORT TOWSON...MESSER...HUSKEY...
FALLON...SPEER...APPLE...CORINNE...DELA...RATTAN...CLOUDY...FINLEY...
SNOW AND OLETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3430 9562 3387 9554 3393 9526 3456 9530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

ARZ010-019-172100-
CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD

AT 308 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NATURAL DAM...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ODELL...LINCOLN...
PRAIRIE GROVE...HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL...
NATURAL DAM AND LEE CREEK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3568 9449 3562 9433 3596 9420 3600 9450

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

OKZ054-059-172130-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN PAWNEE

AT 348 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RALSTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF RALSTON TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RALSTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...APPERSON...WEBB CITY AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3638 9687 3639 9663 3630 9646 3673 9642
      3684 9671 3673 9691

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-172145-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
413 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 413 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FORT SMITH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHORT...MOFFETT...MILL CREEK...
UNIONTOWN...FORT SMITH...BARLING...VAN BUREN...CEDARVILLE...NATURAL
DAM...SHIBLEY...FURRY...FIGURE FIVE...RUDY...DORA AND LEE CREEK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3572 9430 3533 9424 3533 9443 3539 9444
      3538 9449 3564 9455 3564 9447 3571 9447
      3572 9444 3573 9431