Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF
SW KS AND THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES ABOUT THE REGION.  SO...MUCH
LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT AT A MINIMUM
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AS THIS AREA WILL BE SUBJECT TO BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LOW. STILL FEEL AT THIS TIME THAT THAT GFS IS
A BIT TOO QUICK WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS NOTION OF A SLOWER SOLUTION. UNTIL THAT OCCURS... LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGE OF ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE PLACE...SO WILL KEEP WITH
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE...DIDNT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE MAV NUMBERS THAT HAS BEEN
TOUGH TO BEAT AS OF LATE IN MOST PERIODS(AT LEAST FOR THIS
FORECASTER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  84  68 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   89  67  84  68 /  30  50  50  30
MLC   86  68  84  69 /  50  80  60  40
BVO   83  64  84  66 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   85  63  81  64 /  30  50  50  20
BYV   84  62  82  64 /  10  30  50  20
MKO   83  66  84  68 /  50  70  50  30
MIO   84  66  83  67 /  30  50  50  20
F10   85  67  83  68 /  50  80  60  40
HHW   87  68  86  69 /  80  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TODAY...WITH LATE
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 K/KG. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH THE SLOW MOVING CELLS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NOT CHANGING THE UPPER PATTERN MUCH IN
THE NEAR FUTURE... THUS KEEPING AN UPPER LOW IN THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE-RICH
AIR MASS THROUGH THAT TIME AS WELL. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED THREATS...WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

OKZ071-073-142315-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
515 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF SCIPIO TO 4 MILES EAST OF SCIPIO
TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF INDIANOLA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HANNA...
VERNON...RAIFORD...SCIPIO AND INDIANOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3494 9609 3499 9592 3498 9577 3527 9571
      3530 9584 3527 9598 3517 9598 3509 9605

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

OKZ065-142345-
OKFUSKEE OK-
539 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 539 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF WELEETKA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...
BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH AND CASTLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3529 9643 3530 9603 3557 9621 3555 9651
      3546 9644