Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH #246
THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ALL SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION REMAINED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AS
DEEPENING MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS EFFECTIVELY NEGATED ANY EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO STORM MOTION. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL PERUSE 00Z GUIDANCE AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR
A POSSIBLE TEMP/POP UPDATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH AS IT HAS FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE CAP WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK AS THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED SURFACE FOCUS
MECHANISM TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE PHOTOS DO INDICATE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
ANY SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE ROTATION WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES. PLEASE NOTE
THAT EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL CHANCE OF A SURFACE BASED STORM IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS QUITE LOW...THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS HIGH. THEREFORE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE LEFT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAIN AND A LOW GRADE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IN
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IF THE STORMS MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST. ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST THIS WEEK SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ055-056-061-061900-
NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
111 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN NOWATA AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

AT 111 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RAMONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WANN...
VERA...RAMONA AND OCHELATA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3647 9603 3641 9587 3699 9543 3699 9583

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ057-062345-
CRAIG OK-
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CRAIG

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WELCH...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PYRAMID CORNERS AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3679 9519 3679 9508 3700 9499 3702 9516