Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER LOW TO EFFECT THE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING WITH DWINDING
CHANCES WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH/UPPER LOW SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADED INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AS
THE UPCOMING WEEK TRANSPIRES.  THE INITIAL CHANCES OF THUNDER
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENS BUT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG IT AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TRAILING VORT LOBE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY CHANCES POPS AS TIMING
ISSUES ARE PRESENT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY.

SUNSHINE WILL BE EVIDENT LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEEKEND.  DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AS WILL LOW TEMPERATURES.
HIGH WILL BE IN THE 80S.  HIGHS NEXT WEEK MAY SUFFER DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  83  71  86 /  30  10  10  30
FSM   62  82  69  86 /  30  20  10  20
MLC   64  82  71  83 /  30  10  10  30
BVO   60  83  70  84 /  30  10  10  30
FYV   60  78  66  82 /  30  20  10  20
BYV   59  78  65  83 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   62  82  68  83 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   61  82  70  86 /  30  10  10  20
F10   63  82  70  82 /  30   0  10  30
HHW   65  81  71  85 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1120 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON...ENDING BY 9 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK...WITH
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO ERODE...AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
HIGHEST.  THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT EXPECTED...
HOWEVER LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION WOULD BE REQUIRED NEAR
ANY STRONG STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ATTENTION THEN
TURNING TO A SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS
FEATURE AND DEVELOPING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
442 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

OKZ064-032230-
CREEK OK-
442 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK

AT 442 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SHAMROCK...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEPEW...SHAMROCK...
DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND SILVER CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3582 9665 3578 9643 3611 9631 3616 9661