Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080251
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKC023-080330-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070508T0330Z/
CHOCTAW OK-
951 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOSWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... 
BOSWELL...UNGER...SOPER AND KENT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3416 9599 3413 9594 3395 9594 3389 9585
      3389 9577 3395 9558 3417 9558

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080321
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

OKC023-080330-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070508T0330Z/
CHOCTAW OK-
1020 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

LAT...LON 3416 9599 3413 9594 3395 9594 3389 9585
      3389 9577 3395 9558 3417 9558

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
BIGGEST CONCERN IS STILL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPS A BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
735 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

...TORNADO WATCH 255 IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   UNTIL 3 AM...

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...TONIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...TONIGHT.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND
                                NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIFT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR AND
HELICITY...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE. STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF AREA HAS CAUGHT A BREAK FROM THE RECENT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO
PARTS OF THE REGION...AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN
COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
AS THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY SETS UP TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AREAWIDE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
TUESDAY EVEN AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE EAST SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH A
LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.