Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 17, 2007Creek County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 17, 2007, 6:33 PM CDT for Creek County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 57 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Oct 17, 2007, 6:33 PM CDT (23:33 UTC)
Expired: Oct 17, 2007, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Creek County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Oct 17, 7:19 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	3 E Sapulpa, OK

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 17, 2:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 719 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 476 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 367 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 396 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.1
Supercell composite: 5.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 172333
SVRTSA
OKC037-180045-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0204.071017T2333Z-071018T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEPEW...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEPEW...
  SHAMROCK...BRISTOW...SLICK...KELLYVILLE...MOUNDS...KIEFER...SAPULPA
  AND TULSA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3608 9603 3587 9604 3586 9614 3586 9618
      3575 9619 3564 9638 3564 9663 3592 9664
      3609 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 229DEG 41KT 3561 9671

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 180013
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKC037-180045-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-071018T0045Z/
CREEK OK-
713 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CREEK COUNTY...

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SAPULPA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3608 9603 3587 9604 3586 9614 3586 9618
      3578 9618 3577 9637 3588 9642 3598 9642
      3609 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 228DEG 44KT 3605 9614

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 180030
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

OKC037-180041-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-071018T0045Z/
CREEK OK-
731 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CREEK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3608 9603 3587 9604 3586 9614 3586 9618
      3578 9618 3577 9637 3588 9642 3598 9642
      3609 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 228DEG 44KT 3619 9593

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 17, 5:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 5:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY WILL
MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STORM
RELATIVE-HELICITY ALONG ITS PATH INCREASES TO NEAR 200 M2/S2
IN THE RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE SHEAR PARAMETERS TO INCREASE
WITH TIME.

SO FAR NO REPORTS FROM THE SUPERCELL THAT CROSSED WESTERN
BENTON COUNTY.  THIS CELL HAD A STRONG AND SUSTAINED
MESOCYCLONE.

THE SEVERE STORM NOW MOVING INTO PAWNEE COUNTY IS COMPLEX
WITH MULTIPLE CORES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...BUT THE CELL
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT CROSSES THE OLD
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN OSAGE FOR RAPID SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OKC.  THESE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPERCELLS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 11:54 AM CDT, 6 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1153 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....AFTER 12PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...NOW.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  INITIALLY THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...BUT WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.
THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS...AND AS WIND PROFILES CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO
DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE DRY LINE ADVANCES EASTWARD.  THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 5PM.  WIND AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THESE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
RISK FOR TORNADOES...HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH.

RATHER THAN A SOLID LINE OF STORMS FORMING...THE STORMS
MAY STAY CELLULAR FOR SOMETIME INTO THE EVENING...WHICH
PROLONGS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADO FORMATION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES.

SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LENGTH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE RISK
OF A STRONG TORNADO.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS IN THE AREA.  ACTIVATION OF THE
REGIONAL SKYWARN NETWORK WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE ACTIVE NEAR ANY OF THE
STORMS.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD READY FOR NOT ONLY
SPOTTER OPERATIONS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL IMPACT RECOVERY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOYIL                   36.43N 95.52W
10/17/2007                   ROGERS             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR EW41 AND EW39 NORTH OF HWY 66...1 MOBILE HOME WITH
            ROOF DAMAGE. 1 MOBILE HOME BLOWN OFF FOUNDATION.
            EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IN AREA.

&&

SAA

Local storm report, Oct 17, 5:47 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     HAIL             2 N PAWHUSKA            36.70N 96.34W
10/17/2007  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0458 PM     HAIL             5 S FORT TOWSON         33.95N 95.27W
10/17/2007  E0.75 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAWNEE                  36.34N 96.80W
10/17/2007                   PAWNEE             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

SAA

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:04 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     HAIL             3 W HULAH               36.93N 96.09W
10/17/2007  E0.88 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

&&

SAA

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:08 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             2 W HOMINY              36.41N 96.43W
10/17/2007  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            AND 50 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JDS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:15 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N HOMINY              36.44N 96.39W
10/17/2007  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT HOMINY AIRPORT

&&

JDS

Local storm report, Oct 17, 6:25 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLEVELAND               36.31N 96.46W
10/17/2007  E60.00 MPH       PAWNEE             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SAA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 17, 7:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	57 min
Oct 17, 7:55 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	65 min
Oct 17, 10:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	75 min
Oct 17, 11:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	71 min
Oct 17, 1:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Osage, Pawnee	46 min
Oct 17, 2:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	38 min
Oct 17, 2:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Washington	45 min
Oct 17, 3:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	34 min
Oct 17, 3:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	23 min
Oct 17, 3:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	44 min
Oct 17, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Tulsa	27 min
Oct 17, 3:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	14 min
Oct 17, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Wagoner	54 min
Oct 17, 3:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	36 min
Oct 17, 4:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	42 min
Oct 17, 4:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware	40 min
Oct 17, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Nowata, Rogers	44 min
Oct 17, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	49 min
Oct 17, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig	44 min
Oct 17, 4:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Choctaw	56 min
Oct 17, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	91 min
Oct 17, 5:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	45 min
Oct 17, 6:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	LeFlore	38 min
Oct 17, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	74 min
Oct 17, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	70 min
Oct 17, 6:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	50 min
Oct 17, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata	78 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.