Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 151112
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

OKC035-151145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-070715T1145Z/
CRAIG OK-
612 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY...

AT 610 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WELCH...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELCH...
HOLLOW...BLUEJACKET...PYRAMID CORNERS AND CENTRAILIA.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3700 9503 3700 9530 3670 9539 3672 9501

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 151144
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

OKC035-151154-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-070715T1145Z/
CRAIG OK-
644 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 645 AM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY 
RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3700 9503 3700 9530 3670 9539 3672 9501

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IT
SHOULD AROUND HERE IN SUMMER. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TIME WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RELATIVELY LOW. THERE IS STILL A HINT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO OUR
SOUTH WHICH MAY STILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL SAG
SOUTH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER LATER TODAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING JUST
TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL
KEEP STORMS RATHER DISORGANIZED SO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED
TO BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM PULSE TYPE STORMS. GUIDANCE
POPS LOOK MUCH TOO LOW THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING SO KEPT POPS GOING
AND EXPANDED THEM SOUTH THIS EVENING SINCE STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WENT
AHEAD AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR PERSISTENCE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE EXPECTED. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   94  70  95  72 /  20  20  20  10
MLC   93  68  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   94  67  95  68 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   90  65  91  66 /  30  20  20  10
BYV   90  67  91  68 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   93  70  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   92  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  10
F10   93  69  94  70 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   92  69  93  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF A KANSAS CITY TO EMPORIA TO WITCHITA LINE.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT STORMS THAT FORM ALONG IT WILL AFFTECT OUR AREA.
STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S WILL
MAKE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA QUITE STORNG.  WEAK
WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL MINIMALIZE STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT
STRONG SHORT DURATION STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY TERRAIN DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY
BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.