Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 241652
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

ARC033-241730-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T1730Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
1052 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST 
FOR EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 1051 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCKE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOUNT GAYLER AND
BIDVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3554 9416 3549 9406 3576 9389 3575 9413

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 241707
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

ARC033-241716-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T1730Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
1106 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST. 

LAT...LON 3554 9416 3549 9406 3576 9389 3575 9413

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER SYSTEM AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
(OVER PARTS OF FORECAST AREA)...PARAMETERS JUST HAVENT LINED UP
OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. SLUG OF DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR OVER NE OK/WRN AR HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE...AND ONGOING CNTRL OK CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED
EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. COMBINE THIS SITUATION WITH
THE EXTREME BULK SHEAR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...AND DEEP SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN. ONGOING STORMS REMAIN
STRONG THOUGH...SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN
SUGGESTED BY LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
RADAR BEFORE DECIDING ON NEAR TERM POPS.

BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY VERY WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD CORE (500MB TEMPS AROUND
-27C) PUSH INTO FAR NE OK/NW AR. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND VERY STRONG SWLY
WINDS DEVELOP. DESPITE SOME WIDESPREAD MORNING RAINFALL...GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH (WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH) WILL
QUICKLY DRY ANY DORMANT FINE FUELS. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS WONT TECHNICALLY BE MET...BELIEVE STRENGTH OF SURFACE
WINDS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING. THUS...WILL UPGRADE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS WELL.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NE OK/NW AR THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE KS AND
MO BORDERS OVERNIGHT...AND THERE REMAINS THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.

SEASONABLY COOL DAY IN STORE ON SUNDAY...WITH CHILLIEST READINGS
OVER FAR NE OK/NW AR WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER.

WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

FEW...IF ANY...CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  37  48  32 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   67  38  55  33 /  80  10  10  10
MLC   70  36  55  34 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   64  34  48  27 /  60  20  10  10
FYV   66  35  44  27 /  90  10  10  10
BYV   62  35  43  30 /  90  10  10  10
MKO   64  36  50  31 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   67  34  42  27 /  80  20  10  10
F10   65  35  52  34 /  50  10  10  10
HHW   73  38  60  38 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
956 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS (NON THUNDERSTORM).
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT...SPREADINDEX=67.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH VERY HIGH SHEAR AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION... THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGER STORMS TO ROTATE AND BECOME SEVERE. ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

A DRYLINE WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ENDING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...COLD AIR
ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...HAIL TO NEAR PENNY SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

IN ADDITION... VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MILES AN HOUR WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40
MILES AN HOUR WILL BE COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAPID DRYING OF FINE DORMANT FUELS AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WHICH WILL LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR HAIL POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

ARZ001-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ072-076-241630-
BENTON AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN
AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
949 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...BENTON AND MADISON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 949 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING ALONG THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS STATE LINE FROM NEAR
SILOAM SPRINGS TO JUST WEST OF FORT SMITH TO SOUTH CENTRAL LE FLORE
COUNTY. THE LINE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MILES AN HOUR...WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 60 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.