Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

000
WGUS64 KTSA 201959
FFATSA

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

OKZ054>059-210400-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070321T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...
VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE
259 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...CRAIG...NOWATA...OSAGE...OTTAWA...PAWNEE AND 
  WASHINGTON OK.

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS A GOOD
  PART OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE DAY. 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  FALLEN AT NEAR FORAKER IN NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY WITH 1 TO
  2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN
  THE WATCH.  AROUND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE CLUSTER OF 
  THUNDERSTORMS WAS HEADING EAST.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOPMENT AND MOVE ACROSS
  THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...
KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS64 KTSA 210005
FFATSA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007



OKZ054>059-210115-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070321T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...
VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE
705 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN CANCELED. PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA
WITH NONE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO NOSE INTO NE OK THIS EVENING.
SFC WAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY EARLIER AND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST.
HOW FAR BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH REMAINS VERY MUCH AT LARGE
AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY
HALTS...IT WILL OFFER THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY...TRAINING RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT. LACK OF CONFIDENCE COUPLED WITH HIGH FFG VALUES...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY TYPE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND QPF AMOUNTS BEFORE 06Z...AS WELL AS MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMP AN SKY GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
816 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
REDEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT CONCERNING ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS
NORTH OF A DRUMRIGHT...TULSA...FAYETTEVILLE LINE COULD RECEIVE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1002 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

OKZ059-200330-
PAWNEE OK-
1002 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE

AT 1002 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWNEE...MARAMEC AND
SKEDEE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

OKZ059-200400-
PAWNEE OK-
1030 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE

AT 1030 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWNEE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1201 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

OKZ059-200530-
PAWNEE OK-
1201 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE

AT 1201 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWNEE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

OKZ055-056-200530-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN NOWATA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 1203 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF COPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LENAPAH...WANN AND
COPAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.